Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview: Bullish Momentum Gains Ground Amid Volatility

• ADAJPY opened at ¥121.94 and traded in a ¥120.36–¥122.78 range before closing at ¥122.35.
• A sharp bearish reversal was seen midday, but a late-day rally pushed price above key intraday resistance.
• Volume spiked during the ¥118.4–¥122.78 swing, while RSI moved from oversold to overbought territory.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the price rebound, reflecting heightened volatility.
• No clear engulfing or doji patterns were formed during the 24-hour period.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at ¥121.94 on 2025-09-24 and closed at ¥122.35 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by a sharp selloff and a strong rebound. The pair hit an intraday low of ¥118.4 and a high of ¥122.78. Total trading volume amounted to 620,663.0, with notional turnover reaching ¥121,695,679.6, signaling active market participation.

On the 15-minute chart, key support emerged around ¥119.2–¥119.74, where price found a floor during the midday selloff. Resistance levels were tested at ¥120.34 and ¥121.6–122.0, with the latter successfully breached by the end of the session. While no engulfing or doji patterns were observed, the price action suggested a shift in sentiment as buyers retook control following a midday breakdown. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended upward, reinforcing the bearish-to-bullish pivot.

The RSI, which had dipped below 30 during the selloff into the ¥118.4–119.56 range, recovered to the overbought territory (above 70) by the session's close, indicating strong upward momentum. MACD showed a bullish crossover with a positive histogram, aligning with the late-day rally. Bollinger Bands expanded as the pair rebounded from the ¥118.4 level, confirming increased volatility. Price remained above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Fibonacci retracements highlighted key psychological levels during the ¥118.4–122.78 move. The 61.8% retracement level sat near ¥121.3, which was surpassed by the end of the session. This suggests that the current price trajectory could target ¥122.78–123.28, with ¥121.6–122.0 acting as a key support cluster. While volume and turnover confirmed the price action during the rebound, a divergence between rising prices and declining volume in the final 2–3 hours could hint at potential exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering a long position when ADAJPY closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover. The exit signal is triggered upon a close below the 20-period moving average or a bearish MACD crossover. Given the recent price action and confirmation from the 15-minute indicators, a long bias is supported for the next 24 hours. Traders might look for a retest of ¥121.6–122.0 as a potential entry zone, with a stop-loss below ¥120.0 and a first target at ¥122.78–123.28. While the pattern and indicators are in favor of continuation, market sentiment could shift quickly due to high volatility and divergences in volume. Investors are advised to monitor key Fibonacci and moving average levels for possible reversal signs.