Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview: Bullish Breakout Amid High Volatility

• ADAJPY broke above a key resistance level near 106.00, with strong bullish momentum observed in the final hours of the 24-hour period.
• RSI approached overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term correction, but volume remains supportive of the upward move.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating a period of aggressive price discovery.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 106.39–107.01 in the early hours of the session, aligning with a major breakout.
• Turnover surged in the final 6 hours, confirming strength in the rally and aligning with price action above key moving averages.

At 12:00 ET–1, ADAJPY opened at 102.48 and closed at 109.42 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 111.42 and a low of 102.18 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 1,004,494.3, and notional turnover reached approximately ¥108,306,460.00 (assuming 1 ADA = 1 ADAJPY Yen value). The price action suggests a strong bullish breakout, supported by increasing volume and momentum.

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern between 106.39 and 107.01, confirming a reversal from a prior consolidation phase. The breakout above 106.00 marked a significant resistance level, which previously acted as a ceiling for the pair. A key support level emerged near 105.50, which held during several pullbacks. A large bearish candle at 105.42–104.70 indicated intraday bearish pressure, but buying interest reemerged to drive the price higher.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above the 105.50–106.00 range and are now acting as dynamic support. The price is comfortably above these levels, suggesting continued bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is approaching the 105.70 level, while the 100- and 200-period MAs remain slightly lower, indicating a potential for a bullish crossover in the next 24–48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory and is currently trending higher, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI reached 72 near the 110.16–110.32 levels, signaling a near-overbought condition. While this may lead to a temporary pullback, the divergence between price and RSI has yet to form, suggesting continuation of the bullish trend. The MACD histogram also expanded in the final hours of the session, indicating growing momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply in the latter half of the 24-hour window, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price has moved from the middle of the bands to near the upper band, suggesting the pair is in a strong uptrend phase. A contraction in volatility is unlikely in the near term, and traders should watch for any price retests of the lower band as a potential entry opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 172,326.1 units during the breakout candle near 109.80, confirming strong buying interest. Notional turnover also increased sharply in the final 8 hours, aligning with the price action. While volume remains healthy in the 108.00–109.50 range, any divergence between price and volume could signal a reversal. As of the close, volume remains in line with price movement, supporting a continuation of the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the pair reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level during the 107.00–109.80 move. The 78.6% level is now at 111.70 and appears as a potential near-term resistance. On the daily chart, the key 61.8% level from the recent swing low lies near 110.70, which may offer further resistance if the momentum continues. The 38.2% level at 108.40 has already been tested and is now acting as support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-driven backtest strategy, which uses 10% take-profit and stop-loss rules, could benefit from accurate ADA/JPY data. Since the ADAJPY ticker is not widely recognized across major exchanges, it may be necessary to use an approximation—such as ADA-USD converted via the USD-JPY exchange rate—for a reliable backtest. Once the correct data source is identified, the strategy could be applied to this strong recent move, leveraging the overbought RSI readings and confirmed bullish patterns as entry triggers.