Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview

• ADAJPY opened at 125.38 and surged to 130.11 before retracting to 123.0, closing at 123.33.
• A volatile 24-hour range of 6.81 yen was observed, with a total volume of ~521,814 ADA and turnover of ~¥66,184,364.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish, with RSI indicating overbought levels early and oversold levels late.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged after the 130.11 peak, signaling potential downward bias.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the early hours, followed by a contraction and sideways consolidation.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 125.38 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and reached a peak of 130.11 before retreating to a low of 123.0 on 2025-10-09 09:00 ET. The pair closed at 123.33 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was approximately 521,814 ADA, and the notional turnover was around ¥66,184,364.

Key support levels appear to have formed at 123.0 and 122.42, while resistance levels at 124.41 and 125.02 were tested multiple times but failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 130.11 high, followed by a doji at 124.04, hinting at indecision and exhaustion. A notable 20-period 15-minute moving average crossed below the 50-period line early in the session, reinforcing bearish bias.

The RSI moved from overbought territory (~70) to oversold (~30) over the course of the 24 hours, indicating a sharp decline in momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early morning, confirming a shift in sentiment. Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in volatility, peaking around 130.11, and later contracted into a tighter range during the afternoon, suggesting potential for a breakout or continuation of the current trend.

Volume and turnover showed a divergence from price at key inflection points: the surge to 130.11 was accompanied by high volume, but the subsequent pullback to 123.0 occurred on relatively high volume as well, suggesting distribution. Fibonacci retracements from the 130.11 high to the 123.0 low indicate a potential target at the 61.8% level (~126.25), which may act as a pivot point.

The next 24 hours may see ADAJPY testing the 123.0 support level for consolidation or a bounce. A break below 122.42 could accelerate the decline, but traders should remain cautious about volatility and divergence in volume patterns. Position sizing and stop-loss management will be critical.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy for ADAJPY involves entering short positions when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, and the RSI is above 60. This signal is complemented by a bearish engulfing pattern and high volume. A stop-loss is placed at the recent swing high, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and the RSI drops below 30, a long position may be initiated, with stops at the recent swing low. This strategy appears to align with the observed bearish momentum and divergence, and could be backtested over similar market conditions for robustness.