Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview

• ADAJPY opened at 131.28 and closed at 126.82 with a 24-hour high of 133.16 and low of 125.94.
• Strong downward momentum was evident with RSI hitting oversold territory near 30 by the close.
• Volatility spiked mid-session due to a sharp 12-hour drop from 133.16 to 126.45.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, highlighting increased price dispersion.
• High turnover (509,043 Yen) near the session low suggests potential short-term support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15, Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 131.28, reached a high of 133.16, and closed at 126.82 after hitting a low of 125.94. The pair traded with high volatility over the 24-hour window, recording a total volume of 432,555.7 and a notional turnover of 56,076,775.0 Yen. A sharp selloff in the early hours of the session followed by consolidation in the afternoon marked the day’s flow.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels formed near 131.28 and 133.02, both of which saw rejection and failed breakouts. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 133.02, confirming a short-term top. Toward the close, a long lower shadow at 126.82 suggested buyers attempted to stabilize the price but failed to close above the mid-range. Support levels were confirmed near 127.04 and 126.46, where the price found temporary refuge during the selloff.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line in the afternoon, signaling a short-term bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is positioned above the 100- and 200-period lines, suggesting a broader bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, crossing below the signal line early in the selloff. This confirmed bearish momentum. The RSI reached an oversold level of 30 toward the close, hinting at potential stabilization. However, the divergence between RSI and price action—where RSI hit oversold territory but price continued to fall—suggests a lack of strong bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the selloff, with the price trading near the lower band for much of the afternoon. This indicates heightened volatility and a strong bearish bias. Price action toward the close showed a slight pullback toward the mid-band, suggesting the potential for a countertrend rally, but without a clear breakout above the upper band, bullish bias remains limited.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 12-hour selloff, with over 111,048.4 units traded in a single 15-minute candle as the price dropped from 129.7 to 127.86. This was the highest volume bar of the day and coincided with a sharp decline in price. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at 127.86. The divergence between volume and price in the final hours—where volume decreased but price continued to fall—signals exhaustion in the bearish move and may hint at a near-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 133.16 to 125.94, key retracement levels at 129.08 (38.2%) and 127.14 (61.8%) were tested. The 61.8% level at 127.14 held as a support during the afternoon, and the price closed near this level. For the daily chart, Fibonacci levels suggest potential resistance near 132.03 and 133.06, which may be tested in the coming sessions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at 133.02 and the confirmed support at 127.14, a backtesting strategy could involve a short position initiated at 133.02 with a stop-loss placed above the 133.15 resistance and a target near the 126.35 intraday low. A long position could be triggered if ADAJPY breaks above 127.14 with strong volume, with a stop-loss at 126.71. This strategy leverages the strong reversal signals observed in both price structure and momentum indicators. Testing over similar 15-minute swings in recent weeks could validate the robustness of these patterns in volatile conditions.