Cardano News Today: Institutional Bet or Supply Overhang? Coinbase's 462% ADA Surge Sparks Debate

Cardano (ADA) has maintained a steady price range of $0.82–$0.87 over the past week, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This consolidation reflects mixed market sentiment, with buyers defending the $0.82–$0.80 support level while encountering heavy resistance near $0.87. The 20-day EMA remains flat at $0.84, and the RSI hovers near neutral territory, indicating indecision among traders. A breakout above $0.87 could target $0.91 and $0.94, while a breakdown below $0.80 risks testing $0.78 and $0.75. Analysts note that sustained volume confirmation is critical to validate either direction.

On-chain flows have shifted from a sharp $22 million outflow on October 5 to a $110,000 net inflow by October 6, signaling reduced selling pressure. However, volumes remain significantly below the levels observed in July and August, suggesting cautious accumulation by smaller holders and reluctance from larger entities. Futures open interest has remained muted, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance among leveraged traders.

Coinbase's ADA reserves have surged 462% to 9.56 million tokens since June, according to data from the exchange's proof-of-reserve disclosures. This increase, which follows the launch of the wrapped ADA (cbADA) token on Base, has sparked debate among market participants. Some interpret the surge as evidence of institutional repositioning or preparation for staking expansion, while others warn of potential supply overhangs if demand fails to absorb the influx. The timing of the reserve growth coincides with mild on-chain inflows, adding complexity to the near-term outlook.

The surge in Coinbase's ADA holdings contrasts sharply with its XRP reserves, which have declined by 98% to 16.38 million tokens since June. This divergence has drawn attention from Cardano DReps, who argue that the ADA reserve growth reflects rising institutional interest and DeFi adoption, while the XRP decline suggests waning demand for the exchange's wrapped version of the token. Analysts at Traders Union highlight that ADA's large-cap status and proximity to $1, coupled with macro-level optimism around potential spot ETF approvals, position it for resilience despite adoption challenges.

Technical indicators remain mixed, with the MACD signaling bearish momentum while the RSI (62.75) and CCI (positive) lean bullish. The probability of ADA trading within a $0.854–$0.88 range exceeds 80% over the next five days, with a breakout above $0.88 potentially unlocking a path to $0.92. Conversely, a slip below $0.854 could trigger a pullback toward $0.84. The 462% reserve surge underscores Coinbase's role in expanding ADA's utility on Ethereum-compatible DeFi platforms, including lending and liquidity provision.

Market observers emphasize that while reserve growth and on-chain inflows are positive liquidity signals, they do not guarantee price appreciation. The key to ADA's trajectory lies in its ability to sustain accumulation while navigating macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments. With the Grayscale Cardano ETF expected to launch soon and Hashdex's inclusion of ADA in its crypto index fund, institutional demand could further accelerate. However, the token's success will ultimately depend on its ability to attract real-world use cases and maintain competitive momentum against newer, application-focused rivals.

Source: [1] Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Consolidates as Coinbase ... (https://coinedition.com/cardano-price-prediction-ada-consolidates-as-coinbase-reserves-surge-462/)

[3] Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Consolidates as ... (https://cryptonews.net/news/analytics/31743409/)

[5] Will Cardano break $0.88? Here's why ADA price prediction leans b... (https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/615824-cardano-jumps-2-17percent/:~:text=The%20probability%20of%20further%20gains%20exceeds%2080%25%2C%20favoring,%240.84%20back%20into%20focus%20as%20the%20next%20support.)

[6] Coinbase cbADA Reserves Jump 462% - What This Means for ... (https://cardanofeed.com/rising-coinbase-cbada-reserves-may-signal-growing-institutional-interest-in-cardano-ada-861)

[8] Cardano Reserves On Coinbase Explode 462% Amid Reports Of ... (https://www.mexc.com/az-AZ/news/cardano-reserves-on-coinbase-explode-462-amid-reports-of-xrp-reserve-depletion/118677)