Cardano News Today: Cardano's Pivotal Moment: Bear Market Floor or Bull Cycle Catalyst?

Dan Gambardello, a prominent Cardano (ADA) analyst, has highlighted a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency as it faces potential further weakness following a key trendline rejection. ADA currently trades near $0.77, having slipped below the $0.80 support zone earlier this week. The rejection from the $0.90–$0.92 Fibonacci cluster triggered a selloff, pushing the price to its lowest levels in over a month. Gambardello's analysis suggests that if the $0.76–$0.77 floor fails to hold, ADA could extend its decline toward $0.62, a level aligned with long-term cycle defense zonesCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1].

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish bias in the short term. ADA remains trapped below its 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA cluster, which is currently stacked between $0.83 and $0.85. The breakdown below this supply zone has shifted momentum firmly in favor of sellers. Immediate resistance sits at $0.80, while stronger ceilings align at $0.83 and $0.84. The RSI hovers near 34, close to oversold territory but without a reversal signal, indicating weak momentumCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1]. Coinglass data further underscores the bearish sentiment, with a $2.57 million net outflow recorded on September 26. While net outflows typically suggest accumulation, the absence of strong inflows highlights a lack of conviction among tradersCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1].

The debate among analysts remains split on ADA's long-term prospects. A viral post by Minswap's intern argued that ADA could "easily" hit $10, citing historical cycle pumps of 6,000% and 3,000% in 2018 and 2021. This projection implies a potential 1,500% rally from current levels, aligning with long-term cycle patternsCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1]. However, skeptics counter that current on-chain activity and institutional flows remain subdued. They emphasize that without ecosystem expansion or new adoption catalysts, ADA may struggle to replicate past gainsCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1].

Gambardello's analysis also identifies two key resistance levels to monitor in October. The first is the $0.87 price level, where ADA has historically struggled to sustain a breakout. The second is the $1.25 supply area, dubbed the "bull market door." A successful breakout above $1.25 could signal the start of a parabolic expansion, with Gambardello previously predicting a target of $10.025 if this level is cleared. Other analysts, such as Ali Martinez, have proposed lower but still bullish targets, suggesting a rally to $6.25 is possible.

The broader technical outlook for ADA hinges on whether buyers can reclaim the $0.80–$0.83 range. A rebound above $0.83 would shift sentiment toward recovery and open the door for a retest of the $0.90 zone. Conversely, a failure to hold $0.76 could lead to a deeper correction toward $0.74 and $0.70. Long-term cycle defense at $0.62 remains a critical level to watch, as it represents a potential floor if macro conditions stabilizeCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1].

Market participants are also monitoring on-chain flows and futures open interest for signs of accumulation. While Coinglass data shows mild accumulation, conviction remains weak compared to prior cycle bottoms. Sustained recovery would require consistent positive flows above $10 million, a threshold historically linked to cycle-driven ralliesCardano Price Prediction: ADA at $0.77 Support as Analysts Debate $10 Cycle Target^[1]. For now, ADA's price action remains at a pivotal juncture, with technicals leaning bearish but broader cycle patterns keeping optimism alive for patient investors.