Cardano News Today: Cardano's October 2025 Make-or-Break Moment: ETF Approval or Price Plunge?

Cardano's (ADA) price trajectory remains a subject of debate among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency navigates a complex mix of technical, market, and regulatory dynamics. As of early March 2025, ADA trades at approximately $0.71, with key resistance levels at $0.77 and $1.04 posing critical junctures for both bulls and bears. Current technical indicators, including a Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory and a negative funding rate, suggest heightened bearish sentiment, though historical patterns indicate oversold conditions often precede minor recoveries.

The asset's price action has been influenced by significant short-term risks. Over $4.66 million in ADA short positions face liquidation if the price rebounds to $0.77, a level that could trigger a short squeeze and temporarily push ADA toward $0.85. Conversely, a failure to break above $0.77 may keep ADA range-bound between $0.70 and $0.77, with limited upside potential in the near term. Broader market volatility, coupled with Cardano's inability to sustain bullish patterns like a falling wedge, underscores the uncertainty surrounding its near-term outlook.

Longer-term predictions hinge on Cardano's ecosystem developments and external catalysts. The platform's $71 million community-funded upgrades-targeting scalability, consensus optimization, and privacy-could enhance utility and attract institutional demand if delivered by late 2025. However, these improvements are contingent on execution and adoption, with no guarantee of immediate price impacts. Meanwhile, the pending SEC decision on Grayscale's ADA ETF application by October 26, 2025, introduces a high-stakes variable. Approval could unlock institutional inflows akin to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, while delays or rejections risk a 20-30% retracement.

Whale activity adds another layer of complexity. Large investors have accumulated over 70 million ADA tokens below $0.80, stabilizing the price in the short term. However, historical selling pressure near $1.00 suggests profit-taking could cap gains, with liquidation clusters at $0.84–$0.88 acting as immediate hurdles. The Spot CVD metric, currently at -0.8, reflects seller dominance but hints at potential reversals if whale confidence strengthens.

Short-term risks are further amplified by leveraged positions. If ADA surges past $1.04, a $3.28 billion short liquidation event could unfold, triggering a rapid price spike. This scenario, however, requires sustained bullish momentum and a breakout from the current $0.70–$0.77 range. Conversely, a continued bearish trend could see ADA test support levels as low as $0.65, with Open Interest declining to $738.11 million indicating cautious trader sentiment.

Analysts remain divided on ADA's 2025 prospects. While network upgrades and ETF approval present bullish catalysts, the absence of strong buying pressure and lingering liquidation risks suggest a $1.00 target is optimistic at best. A more realistic trajectory involves consolidation between $0.70 and $0.90, with the October 2025 timeframe offering a potential inflection point depending on regulatory outcomes and whale activity.