Cardano ETF Approval Odds Rise to 87% with Grayscale's Amended S-1 Filing

Grayscale's amended S-1 filing with the SEC has boosted the approval odds for a Cardano ETF to 87%, potentially unlocking significant institutional investment and liquidity. If approved, the ETF could bring billions of dollars in new liquidity and enhance regulatory confidence, paving the way for major institutional ADA acquisitions and accelerating Cardano's network adaptation.

Grayscale's recent amended S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has significantly improved the approval odds for a Cardano ETF, now standing at 87%. This development could unlock substantial institutional investment and liquidity for the Cardano (ADA) ecosystem, potentially accelerating its network adaptation and growth.

The filing, which was submitted on June 25, 2025, is part of Grayscale's ongoing efforts to convert its Cardano Trust into a full-fledged exchange-traded fund (ETF). The approval of such an ETF would allow institutional investors, including pension funds and hedge funds, to gain easy exposure to Cardano without the need for direct cryptocurrency purchases or custody services [1].

The surge in ETF approval odds follows a period of increasing institutional interest in Cardano. Over the past few months, whales have accumulated a significant amount of ADA tokens, with 200 million tokens worth $157 million purchased in just 48 hours. This coordinated buying spree, which mirrors the 2021 price run, has created a supply squeeze that could drive prices higher when demand increases [2].

The ETF approval, if granted, could bring billions of dollars in new liquidity to the Cardano market. According to Polymarket data, ETF approval odds have rocketed from 60% to 75% in recent weeks, with the latest filing boosting these odds further. This could trigger an "explosive move" similar to the 2021 bull run, as institutional money flows into ADA [2].

However, the market for Cardano remains volatile, with conflicting signals from whale activity, bearish technical indicators, and the rising allure of DeSoc and meme coins. While whale accumulation suggests a long-term bullish case, bearish technical patterns and the siphoning of capital into high-risk, high-reward projects pose significant threats. Investors must weigh the risks of a potential sub-$0.50 drop against the long-term potential of Cardano's ecosystem [3].

In conclusion, Grayscale's amended S-1 filing has bolstered the approval odds for a Cardano ETF, potentially unlocking significant institutional investment and liquidity. While the market remains volatile, the ETF approval could accelerate Cardano's network adaptation and growth, attracting more institutional investors and enhancing regulatory confidence.

References:
[1] https://thetradable.com/crypto/cardano-ada-price-explosion-incoming-whales-drop-157m-as-etf-odds-hit-75-ig--a
[2] https://decrypt.co/336759/grayscale-files-convert-avalanche-trust-etf
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/cardano-volatility-whale-activity-rising-competition-desoc-meme-coins-2508/