Canopy Growth Soars 51% on Trump Marijuana Rescheduling Rumors: Is This the Catalyst for a Green Revolution?

Summary
• Canopy Growth (CGC) surges 51.39% intraday to $1.7107, defying a 52-week low of $0.77
• Sector leader Tilray (TLRY) jumps 43.3%, signaling broad cannabis sector enthusiasm
• Options frenzy: 2026-04-17 $1.5 call options trade at 200% price change ratio
• Trump's rumored Schedule III reclassification sparks regulatory optimism, though profitability remains unproven. The stock's meteoric rise reflects speculative fervor over potential banking access and tax relief, despite CGC's $416M annual loss.

Trump's Marijuana Rescheduling Sparks Sector Frenzy
President Trump's rumored executive order to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug has ignited a buying frenzy in cannabis stocks. This regulatory shift would decouple cannabis from Schedule I status (shared with heroin) and enable banks to service cannabis businesses, unlocking capital access and tax deductions. While not full legalization, the move signals federal normalization, directly boosting CGC's operational viability. The 17% surge through 12:50 ET Friday reflects immediate pricing of these benefits, though the 52-week high of $3.14 remains a distant target.

Cannabis Sector Rides Trump's Regulatory Tailwind
The cannabis sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Tilray (TLRY) up 43.3% and Aurora Cannabis also surging. CGC's 51.39% intraday jump outpaces sector averages, suggesting investors view its Canadian market dominance and product diversification as strategic advantages. However, CGC's 18.74% gross margin and $387M market cap lag behind TLRY's scale, raising questions about its ability to capitalize on regulatory tailwinds without operational improvements.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Regulatory-Driven Rally
• 200-day MA: $1.276 (below current price)
• RSI: 60.0 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: -0.021 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $1.0129–$1.2301 (price at 37% upper band)
• Key support/resistance: $1.0926–$1.1147 (200D), $1.1296–$1.1348 (30D)

Technical indicators suggest a volatile breakout scenario. The stock trades 13.2% above its 50-day MA and 9.7% above 200-day MA, indicating short-term strength. However, the -0.021 MACD and -0.002026 theta on call options signal caution. High-liquidity options offer asymmetric risk/reward:

• CGC20260417C1.5 (Call):
- Strike: $1.50 | Expiry: 2026-04-17 | IV: 136.97% | Delta: 0.719 | Theta: -0.002026 | Gamma: 0.2447 | Turnover: $134,790
- IV: High volatility premium | Delta: Strong directional bias | Gamma: High sensitivity to price moves | Turnover: Liquid entry/exit
- This call offers 200% price change ratio with 2.75% leverage. A 5% upside to $1.80 would yield max payoff of $0.30/share, translating to 175% return on strike price.

• CGC20260417P1.5 (Put):
- Strike: $1.50 | Expiry: 2026-04-17 | IV: 130.05% | Delta: -0.285 | Theta: -0.001468 | Gamma: 0.2594 | Turnover: $177,468
- IV: Reasonable volatility | Delta: Moderate downside protection | Gamma: High sensitivity to price moves | Turnover: Liquid entry/exit
- This put provides -33.93% price change ratio with 4.61% leverage. A 5% downside to $1.62 would yield $0.12/share payoff, a 80% return on strike price. Aggressive bulls may consider CGC20260417C1.5 into a bounce above $1.75, while cautious traders might short CGC20260417P1.5 if $1.60 breaks.

Backtest Canopy Growth Stock Performance
Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) has experienced a significant intraday surge of 51% from 2022 to the present day. However, it is important to note that this surge does not necessarily translate into long-term performance or profitability. 1. Current Stock Price and Recent Performance: As of December 11, 2025, the closing stock price for CGC is $1.13. This is a significant decrease from the 52-week high of $3.17, which represents an 180.5% increase above the current share price. 2. Annual Stock Price Trends: The average annual stock price for CGC over the past 52 weeks is $1.48. This indicates that while there have been periods of high volatility, the overall trend has been one of decline from the high point in 2022.3. Market Sentiment and Risks: Trading in financial instruments, including cannabis stocks, involves high risks, and prices can be affected by various external factors. The cannabis sector is particularly volatile, and Canopy Growth has faced challenges, including a -65.870% change over the past year.4. Financial Health Indicators: Canopy Growth's financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 show an increase in Canada adult-use cannabis revenue by 30% and medical cannabis revenue by 17%, indicating a positive trend in their core business areas. However, the company has also faced challenges with previous doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern, which have been resolved with the recent improvement in cash and cash equivalents exceeding debt balances.In conclusion, while Canopy Growth has experienced a significant intraday surge, the current stock price and recent performance indicate a complex picture of highs and lows. Investors should consider the inherent risks in the cannabis sector and the company's financial health indicators when evaluating its performance after such a surge.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Volatility: Positioning for a High-Stakes Cannabis Play
The 51.39% intraday surge hinges on Trump's rumored executive order, which remains unconfirmed. While the 136.97% IV in options suggests market pricing of a high-probability event, CGC's -9.44 PE ratio and $416M annual loss highlight fundamental risks. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA ($1.276) as a critical support level and watch for sector leader Tilray (TLRY) to confirm momentum with its 43.3% gain. A sustained close above $1.75 could validate the bullish case, but a retest of $1.33 would signal exhaustion. Position sizing should reflect the high volatility and regulatory uncertainty inherent in this trade.