Canadian core retail sales MoM actual 0.1% (forecast -0.1%, previous 1.7%)

Canadian core retail sales MoM actual 0.1% (forecast -0.1%, previous 1.7%)

Canadian Core Retail Sales Rise 1.9% in June 2025, Outpacing Forecasts

Canadian core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicle dealers, and fuel vendors, increased by 1.9% month-over-month in June 2025, according to Statistics Canada. This figure exceeded the previously reported May gain of 1.7% and contrasted with a forecasted decline of 0.1%. The growth was driven by stronger demand in key subsectors, including food and beverage retailers, which saw a 2.3% rise in sales. Supermarkets and grocery stores rebounded with a 1.8% increase in June after a 0.6% decline in May, while convenience retailers and liquor stores also contributed to the upward trend.

Provincial performance varied, with Ontario leading the charge, posting a 3.2% MoM sales increase, largely due to motor vehicle and parts dealers. British Columbia also saw robust growth (1.5%), supported by building material and garden equipment sales. However, Saskatchewan experienced a 1.4% decline, attributed to wildfire-related evacuations disrupting retail activity.

Trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. continued to impact the sector, with 27% of retailers reporting effects in June—down from 32% in May. Common challenges included supply chain delays and shifting consumer demand. Meanwhile, e-commerce sales fell 1.7% to $4.2 billion, representing 5.9% of total retail trade, as seasonal adjustments and external factors influenced online activity.

An advance estimate for July suggests a potential 0.8% decline in retail sales, though this figure is subject to revision as more data becomes available. Overall, the June report highlights resilience in core retail sectors despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

For further details, refer to Statistics Canada's full June 2025 retail trade report (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250822/dq250822a-eng.htm).

(https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250822/dq250822a-eng.htm): Statistics Canada, The Daily — Retail Trade, June 2025 (August 22, 2025).