CACI International Surges 5.7%: What's Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• CACI International (CACI) rockets 5.73% intraday to $568.23, breaking above its 30-day moving average of $577.76
• RSI plummets to 17.14, signaling extreme oversold conditions
• Options chain erupts with 2250 contracts traded in the CACI20260116C550 call
• Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) lags with 2.51% intraday gains

As CACI defies its short-term bearish pattern, traders are scrambling to decode the catalyst behind this sharp reversal. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $318.60 yet surging past key technical levels, the market is caught between bearish momentum and sudden bullish aggression. This analysis deciphers the mechanics behind the move and identifies high-conviction options plays.

Technical Rebound Drives CACI's Sharp Intraday Rally
The 5.73% surge stems purely from technical factors, as no company-specific news triggered the move. CACI's RSI at 17.14 indicates extreme oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram (-3.34) shows bearish momentum peaking. Price action reveals a textbook short-covering rally as the stock pierced above its 200-day moving average ($492.32) and 30-day band ($577.76). The Bollinger Bands confirm this with CACI now trading at 563.14, just 0.17% below the upper band of 610.19.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Quiet as CACI Outperforms
While CACI's 5.73% gain dwarfs the sector's muted performance, the aerospace & defense industry remains anchored by Lockheed Martin's 2.51% rise. With no sector-wide catalysts reported, CACI's move appears entirely self-contained. The lack of sector alignment suggests this is a stock-specific technical rebound rather than a broader industry rotation.

Options Playbook: Leveraging CACI's Volatility with Strategic Calls
• 200-day average: 492.32 (below) • RSI: 17.14 (oversold) • MACD: -13.09 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 516.09–610.19 • 30D MA: 577.76 (above) • 200D MA: 492.32 (below)

With CACI trading at 568.23, the most compelling options plays focus on short-term volatility. The CACI20260116C550 call (strike $550) offers 25.21% leverage with 28.20% implied volatility, while the CACI20260116C570 call (strike $570) provides 51.46% leverage and 29.27% IV. Both contracts exhibit strong liquidity (2250 and 1102 turnover) and favorable Greeks: the 550 call has 0.74 delta and -1.78 theta, while the 570 call shows 0.48 delta and -1.42 theta. Gamma readings of 0.0111 and 0.0132 respectively indicate sensitivity to price acceleration.

CACI20260116C550
• Code: CACI20260116C550 • Type: Call • Strike: 550 • Expiry: 2026-01-16 • IV: 28.20% (moderate volatility) • LVR: 25.21% (high leverage) • Delta: 0.743 (high sensitivity) • Theta: -1.782 (rapid time decay) • Gamma: 0.0111 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: 2250 (liquid)
• This contract offers maximum exposure to CACI's current momentum with 25.21% leverage. A 5% price rise to $596.64 would generate $46.64 per contract, outperforming the stock's 5% gain by 8.4%.

CACI20260116C570
• Code: CACI20260116C570 • Type: Call • Strike: 570 • Expiry: 2026-01-16 • IV: 29.27% (moderate volatility) • LVR: 51.46% (extreme leverage) • Delta: 0.483 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -1.418 (rapid time decay) • Gamma: 0.0132 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: 1102 (liquid)
• This 51.46% leverage contract is ideal for aggressive bulls. With CACI currently at 568.23, a 5% move to 596.64 would yield $26.64 per contract, translating to 47.6% return on the 570 strike. The 0.48 delta balances risk/reward while the 29.27% IV suggests market anticipation of continued volatility.

Aggressive bulls should consider CACI20260116C570 into a break above 570.00, while conservative traders may prefer the CACI20260116C550 for its balance of leverage and liquidity.

Backtest CACI International Stock Performance
The CACI index has demonstrated positive performance following a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to the present date. The backtest data reveals a 3-day win rate of 56.87%, a 10-day win rate of 58.78%, and a 30-day win rate of 65.65%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The average returns over 3, 10, and 30 days are 0.37%, 1.14%, and 2.95%, respectively, suggesting that while the returns may not be significantly high, they are consistently positive. The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.39%, which occurred on day 59, further highlighting the index's potential for modest but reliable gains following the 6% intraday surge.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: Positioning for CACI's Next Move
The technical setup suggests CACI's 5.73% surge is a valid short-term reversal from oversold conditions. With RSI at 17.14 and MACD divergence forming, the stock appears poised for a continuation above its 30-day moving average of 577.76. Traders should monitor the 563.14 Bollinger Middle Band as a critical support level. Given the sector leader Lockheed Martin's 2.51% gain, CACI's outperformance indicates this is a stock-specific opportunity. Immediate action: Buy CACI20260116C570 calls into a break above 570.00 or CACI20260116C550 calls for a more conservative play. Watch for a close above 577.76 to confirm the bullish reversal.