Las implicaciones alcistas de la actividad de posición corta de las ballenas en BTC y ETH

The cryptocurrency markets of 2025 have been defined by a paradox: amid persistent bearish sentiment and leveraged short positions, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have exhibited resilience and periodic bullish reversals. This dynamic, driven by whale activity and leverage-driven liquidation events, underscores a critical contrarian narrative for investors. By analyzing the interplay between whale short positions, systemic leverage risks, and historical price rebounds, we uncover why these seemingly bearish signals may actually signal the next phase of crypto's long-term bull market.

Whale Short Positions: A Contrarian Indicator

Whale activity in late 2025 has been marked by aggressive short positioning, with several large players betting against BTC and ETH. For instance, a prominent whale identified as 0x94d3 opened $268 million in new short positions across BTC, ETH, and Solana (SOL) within five hours, including 1,360 BTC (~$119 million) and 36,281 ETH (~$106 million). Another whale, 0x47e, deposited $3.5 million in USDC to open a 3x leveraged short on LIT, while 0xd6b mirrored the move with $1.5 million in USDC. These actions reflect a coordinated bearish stance, yet they also highlight a key contrarian insight: when whales aggressively short, it often signals exhaustion in the bearish camp and sets the stage for a short squeeze.

Historical data supports this pattern. In March 2025, Bitcoin's $18.99 million in liquidations saw 84.56% attributed to short positions, while Ethereum's $10.55 million in liquidations had 66.7% from shorts. These events, driven by rapid price surges, forced short sellers to buy back assets to cover losses, inadvertently fueling further price increases. The same mechanism is at play in late 2025, where whale-driven short positions-though bearish in intent-create a structural imbalance that can be exploited by bullish momentum.

Leverage and Liquidation Risks: A Double-Edged Sword

The October 2025 crash, which liquidated $19 billion in positions over 48 hours, exposed the fragility of leveraged crypto derivatives. Short positions, in particular, were vulnerable to cascading liquidations during sharp price swings. For example, a $163 million Bitcoin short opened by a whale in late October 2025 faced liquidation risks if BTC climbed above $125,500. Similarly, a $598 million Ethereum long position held by another whale was at risk of liquidation if ETH dropped below $2,143. These examples illustrate how high leverage amplifies both potential gains and systemic risks.

However, the same leverage that exacerbates downturns can also catalyze rebounds. In December 2025, $222 million in liquidations occurred on December 12 alone, with Bitcoin shorts accounting for 71.09% of the losses. A few days later, a $321 million in liquidations saw Bitcoin shorts suffer nearly 80% of the losses. These events, while destructive for short sellers, created buying pressure that temporarily buoyed prices. The mechanics of auto-deleveraging (ADL) mechanisms-designed to protect exchanges-often worsened outcomes by forcibly closing profitable shorts, leaving traders with exposed long positions and compounding losses as reported.

Historical Precedents: Short Liquidations as Catalysts for Rebounds

The 2024–2025 market cycles provide clear evidence that short liquidations can drive bullish reversals. On November 15, 2024, Bitcoin's $43.81 million in liquidations saw 64.1% attributed to short positions, while Ethereum's $40.63 million in liquidations had 64.33% from shorts. These figures indicate a significant bearish overhang, which was later erased by unexpected price rallies. Similarly, in late 2025, Ethereum's 9% weekly gain was partly fueled by institutional investors shifting focus to ETH amid expectations of Fed rate cuts.

The October 2025 crash, though devastating, also demonstrated the market's resilience. Despite $19 billion in liquidations, the broader system did not collapse, and institutional frameworks held. This suggests that while leverage-driven liquidations can cause short-term pain, they also create opportunities for long-term buyers to accumulate assets at discounted prices.

The Interplay of Whale Behavior and Macro Trends

Whale activity in 2025 has been influenced by macroeconomic factors, including Trump-era tariffs and Fed policy shifts. For example, a whale known as the "Trump insider" profited $160 million by shorting Bitcoin before Trump's 2025 tariff announcement. However, the same whale later returned with $500 million in combined long positions, signaling a shift in sentiment. This duality-whales pivoting from bearish to bullish-reflects the cyclical nature of crypto markets and the importance of macroeconomic catalysts.

Institutional adoption has also played a role. The inflow of $46 billion into crypto ETFs in 2025 and the reversal of Vanguard's crypto ban indicate growing legitimacy for digital assets. These developments, combined with whale-driven short liquidations, create a multi-layered bullish setup for BTC and ETH.

Conclusion: A Contrarian Case for Bullishness

The aggressive short positioning by whales in late 2025, while seemingly bearish, should be viewed through a contrarian lens. Historical precedents show that leveraged short liquidations often precede price rebounds, as forced buying overwhelms bearish sentiment. The October 2025 crash and subsequent December liquidations exemplify this dynamic, with Bitcoin and Ethereum recovering despite systemic risks.

For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor whale activity and leverage levels closely. While the risks of over-leveraging remain, the structural resilience of crypto markets-evidenced by infrastructure growth and institutional adoption-suggests that short-term volatility may be paving the way for a new bull phase. As Santiment notes, extreme bullish sentiment on social media often precedes price dips, but the current environment, marked by whale-driven short liquidations and macroeconomic tailwinds, may be the exception to the rule.