Bull of the Day: Imperial Oil (IMO)

Imperial Oil Limited IMO is a Canadian integrated oil company which is expected to see stronger earnings growth this year as oil prices rise due to the conflict in the Middle East. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) has busted out to 5-year highs.

Imperial Oil is a Canadian integrated energy company headquartered in Calgary. It explores and produces oil and natural gas in the Canadian Oil Sands and transports it to its refineries, where it is made into a variety of products such as fuel, asphalt, motor oil, waxes and various chemicals and gases.

It’s Canada’s largest oil refiner.

Imperial Oil Beat Again in the Fourth Quarter of 2025

On Jan 30, 2026, Imperial Oil reported its fourth quarter 2025 results and beat on the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.05. Earnings were $1.41 versus the Consensus of $1.36.

It has a great earnings surprise track record. This was the fifteenth consecutive earnings beat. It’s last miss was in early 2022.

Integrated oil companies are dependent on the price of crude as well as refining margins.

In the fourth quarter, the price of crude oil fell relative to the third quarter of 2025 due to global supply outpacing demand. Inventory had built across the global energy complex, depressing pricing.

Additionally, the Canadian WTI/WCS spread widened as seasonal weakening in heavy crude demand coincided with an increase in WCS supply.

Industry refining margins did improve in the fourth quarter of 2025, however, impacted by geopolitical factors and supply disruptions.

The War Changed Everything

But in Feb 2026, the world’s energy market abruptly changed upon the breakout of the Middle East conflict. The Strait of Hormuz was mostly shut to shipping traffic, including crude, jet fuel and other refined products, and has remained shut into April.

Up to 10 million barrels of oil a day were removed from the oil market, which led to a decline in the excess inventory worldwide.

Oil prices have soared with both WTI and Brent oil trading above $100 a barrel. Prices for refined products have also been soaring, with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel jumping higher.

Imperial Oil is facing a completely different reality now. It will report first quarter 2026 earnings on May 1, 2026.

Analysts Try to Keep Up with Soaring Oil Prices

The Strait of Hormuz has been mostly shut to shipping for five weeks. It looks like the Iran War will not be over quickly. That means higher oil prices for longer.

The analysts are finally starting to price in the higher energy prices.

One earnings estimate was revised higher for 2026 in just the last week. It has pushed the Zacks Consensus up sharply to $6.48 from $5.20.

That is now earnings growth of 6.2% as Imperial Oil made $6.10 last year.

Here’s what the dramatic turnaround in oil prices looks like in the earnings in the 5-year price and consensus chart.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Shares of Imperial Oil Jump to 5-Year Highs

Shares of Imperial Oil broke out of its old trending line even before the Iran War, around the start of 2026.

But the shares got another leg up in late February and March. They’re now at 5-year highs.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Imperial Oil trades with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.9 but with earnings being revised higher, look for that to drop.

The company is shareholder friendly. It has paid dividends every year for over a century and has increased its annual dividend payment for 31 consecutive years.

In Jan 2026, Imperial Oil announced a 20% increase to the quarterly dividend to $0.87 from $0.72 Canadian. In US dollars, that’s $2.55 annually, which is yielding 2%.

If you are looking for an integrated energy play, with both production and refining, which does not have any operations in the Middle East, Imperial Oil should be on your short list.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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