Buffett's Final 13F: The Smart Money's Real Bet on Bank of America and Domino's

The headline news is clear: Warren Buffett sold nearly 465 million shares of Bank of America and bought a big stake in a consumer brand. But the real signal is in the pattern. For 12 consecutive quarters, the Oracle has been a net seller, a sustained outflow that speaks louder than any single trade. This isn't just profit-taking; it's a strategic rotation.

The scale of the Bank of America exit is staggering. From mid-2024 to the end of 2025, Berkshire sold 464,781,994 shares, a reduction of roughly 45%. That's a massive haircut to a core holding. The new position is equally telling. In a move that marks the first major new purchase in over a year, Buffett built an 8.7% stake in a popular consumer-facing brand-a company that has soared 6,700% since its debut. This is a classic shift from financials to consumer staples, a rotation that aligns with a more defensive, brand-loyalty-driven market.

Yet the most critical context is the 12-quarter streak. While the market fixates on the latest 13F filing, the consistent selling over a full three years signals a deeper caution. It suggests Buffett's confidence in the broader market's long-term trajectory remains, but his conviction in specific holdings-like BofA, which was once a top-three position-has waned. This isn't a panic sell; it's a deliberate, multi-quarter pruning of the portfolio, likely driven by valuation concerns and a desire to redeploy capital into areas he sees as offering better risk-adjusted returns.

The bottom line is that the smart money is rotating, not just reacting. The whale wallet is selling a proven bank giant to buy a consumer brand, but the real story is the disciplined, sustained selling that has been the hallmark of this transition. When the man who built his empire on patience and value finally starts selling for 12 straight quarters, that's the signal to watch.

Decoding the Moves: Skin in the Game vs. Skin in the Game

The Domino's case is a perfect test of the smart-money rotation thesis. The stock has been a laggard, trading 26% off of its early-2022 all-time high and sitting 13.7% below its 52-week high. That's a deep discount, but the question is whether it is a value trap or a buying opportunity. The fundamental challenge is clear: growth has slowed. U.S. same-store sales decelerated to 2.7% in 2025, a significant drop from 4.5% the year before. This is the core of the stock's struggle-slowing comp sales in a key market.

Now, enter the institutional signal. Berkshire Hathaway has been a steady buyer, building an 8.8% stake worth $1.2 billion since last year. This is the kind of skin-in-the-game accumulation that the insider tracker watches for. It suggests that at a valuation where the P/E has cooled to under 25, the smart money sees a bottom forming. Their action contrasts with the broader market's relentless climb, where the S&P 500 has soared while Domino's shares have been virtually flat.

The key watchpoint is whether this institutional accumulation can act as a floor before the broader market turns. The thesis hinges on a few things: first, that the slowing growth is a cyclical pause, not a structural decline, as the company's model remains strong. Second, that Berkshire's continued buying signals a conviction that the current valuation offers a margin of safety. If Domino's can stabilize its U.S. comp sales and leverage its international expansion, the institutional backing could provide the catalyst for a re-rating.

In short, the Domino's move is a classic smart-money play. They're buying the dip in a fundamentally sound company that the market has punished for slowing growth. The $1.2 billion stake is a vote of confidence that the discount may be excessive. For the rotation thesis to hold, we need to see if this accumulation can spark a bottom and set the stage for a recovery in 2026.

Valuation and Catalysts: What to Watch Next

The smart-money thesis now hinges on forward-looking events. The insider tracker's playbook requires monitoring three key catalysts to confirm whether these moves are a bottom or a trap.

First, watch the next Form 13F filings. The market's attention will be on whether Berkshire's selling of Bank of America accelerates or if the firm adds to its new consumer brand position. The current pattern of sustained selling for 12 quarters is a powerful signal. Any deviation-either a sharp increase in sales or a new, large-scale buy in a consumer name-would be a major data point. As the evidence notes, these filings offer invaluable information as to which stocks, sectors, and trends have piked the interest of Wall Street's most successful asset managers. The next quarter's report, due in early May, will show if the rotation is complete or if Buffett is still trimming.

Second, for Bank of America, the critical watchpoint is interest income guidance as the Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle unfolds. The bank's profitability is directly tied to net interest margins. If management provides cautious or downward guidance on future interest income, it would validate the smart money's exit. Conversely, strong guidance could suggest the sell-off has been overdone. The market's focus will shift from the 13F filings to the quarterly earnings reports where this fundamental pressure is revealed.

Finally, for stocks like Domino's, the proof is in the operational numbers. Track same-store sales growth, particularly in the U.S. market, for signs of stabilization. The stock's slump is rooted in decelerating comp sales, so any rebound here is a direct signal of business improvement. Also, monitor analyst price target revisions. The consensus 12-month target sits at $496.65, implying upside. If multiple analysts raise their targets based on better-than-expected results, it would confirm the institutional accumulation is finding a floor. The bottom line is that the smart money's bottom is only a bottom if the fundamentals start to catch up.