Bubblemaps/Tether Market Overview

• BMTUSDT closed 12:00 ET at 0.0401, down from the 12:00 ET - 1 open of 0.0425, with a 24-hour high of 0.0428 and low of 0.0391.
• Price action shows a bearish bias amid a 6.6% decline and volatility expansion, with volume increasing by 358.7% during the selloff.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum, with RSI hovering near oversold levels and MACD in negative territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the drop, with price closing near the lower band at 0.0391–0.0401 range.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 0.0399 (38.2%) as a possible support and 0.0406 (61.8%) as a potential bounce level.

Bubblemaps/Tether (BMTUSDT) opened at 0.0425 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0401 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0428 and low of 0.0391. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period reached 41,361,906.0 units, while notional turnover was 1,683,092.9 USD. The pair experienced a bearish reversal from earlier bullish momentum, with the price forming bearish candlestick patterns like harami and shooting stars in the late ET hours.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels are forming at 0.0399 (38.2% Fibonacci) and 0.0391 (24-hour low), while resistance appears at 0.0406 (61.8% retracement) and 0.0414 (bearish breakdown point from the previous day). Notable candlestick formations include a harami at 20:15 ET and a shooting star at 20:00 ET, signaling weakening bullish conviction. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 20:00 and 20:30 ET, confirming the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed bearishly, with the 50-period line pulling down through the 20-period line. This “death cross” reinforces the short-term bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bear trend is in place. Price is currently below all three, with limited signs of a retest for near-term support.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative and shows bearish divergence, especially after 20:00 ET when price made higher lows but MACD declined further. RSI is near oversold territory (~31), indicating potential for a short-term bounce, although bearish momentum remains dominant. A close above 0.0406 could rekindle bullish RSI action, but given the overall bearish structure, this appears unlikely without strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the selloff, with price closing near the lower band at 0.0391–0.0401. This suggests increased volatility and bearish pressure. A potential reversal may occur if the price breaks above the middle band (~0.0404) with higher volume. However, the current position near the lower band warns of continued downside risk.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late ET hours, especially between 20:00 and 22:00 ET, with a massive 2,123,194.6 units traded at 20:30 ET. Notional turnover spiked concurrently, aligning with the price drop. No significant divergence is observed between price and volume, reinforcing the bearish trend. The increased trading activity may indicate profit-taking or accumulation by larger players at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels highlight 0.0399 as a potential short-term support (38.2%) and 0.0406 as a possible bounce area (61.8%). The 50% retracement at ~0.0407 is currently above the close and may serve as a psychological resistance. If the price continues to trend lower, the next support target lies at 0.0391, the 24-hour low. These retracement levels could act as dynamic pivot points for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy aims to identify and act on top MACD divergences, where price makes a higher high but MACD forms a lower high, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This divergence could be a sell signal, particularly when combined with bearish candlestick patterns and RSI near overbought levels. Historical data could be used to test the effectiveness of entering short positions on such divergences, with stop-loss and take-profit levels derived from Fibonacci retracements and moving averages. The strategy would likely benefit from higher volume during divergence events to confirm the signal.