BTC/USD's 30% Freefall: Is the Bear Market Rally a Distant Prospect?

Bitcoin's 30% price collapse in late 2025 has ignited fierce debate among traders and analysts. After trading as high as $126,273 in October, BTC/USD has plummeted to $98,308 as of November 13, 2025, marking its lowest level in six months. This freefall has been driven by a confluence of technical breakdowns and institutional derisking, raising critical questions about the likelihood of a near-term bear market rally.

Technical Breakdown: A Market in Disarray

The technical landscape for BTC/USD reveals a deeply bearish structure. Price action has collapsed below key support levels, including the $94,500–$95,200 zone, with the 50-week moving average ($96,000) now acting as a critical psychological barrier. A failure to reclaim this level could accelerate the slide toward $90,000, a threshold that has historically acted as a floor during prior corrections.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits in neutral territory, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) tells a different story: its bearish bias underscores persistent selling pressure, with the histogram contracting as short-term momentum wanes. Meanwhile, price action is confined within a descending triangle between $102,500 and $107,000, a pattern that typically resolves with a breakout to the downside when bearish fundamentals dominate.

A critical technical question looms: Can BTC/USD retest the $100,000–$100,200 "buyer zone" without triggering further panic? Historically, this level has attracted institutional demand, but with long-term holders offloading 815,000 BTC in the past 30 days-the highest rate since January 2024-liquidity at these levels is increasingly uncertain.

Institutional Derisking: ETF Outflows and Macro Fears

The technical narrative is compounded by institutional derisking. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of $2 billion since October 29, 2025, eroding confidence in sustained institutional demand. This exodus coincided with broader macroeconomic anxieties, including weak corporate earnings, stretched valuations, and the U.S. government shutdown, which temporarily drained liquidity from global markets.

Large trader behavior further exacerbates the bearish outlook. Public companies, once aggressive buyers of Bitcoin, purchased only 14,400 BTC in October-the lowest monthly total of 2025-while long-term holders accelerated sales, unloading nearly 815,000 BTC in the same period. This suggests a shift from accumulation to distribution, with institutional players prioritizing risk reduction over speculative bets.

The unwinding of bullish futures positions has also amplified downward pressure. Traders who had positioned for a year-end rally-anticipating a rebound to $120,000+-have been forced to cut losses as the price stagnates near $98,000. This "profit-taking" on the short side has created a self-fulfilling prophecy, where every failed rally to $100,000 reinforces bearish sentiment.

Is a Bear Market Rally in the Cards?

For a meaningful rally to materialize, BTC/USD must first reestablish control over key technical levels. A sustained rebound above $100,000 would test the validity of the $100,200 buyer zone, while a break above $99,000-currently acting as a descending channel resistance-could reignite bullish momentum. However, these scenarios depend on institutional participation, which remains muted.

The path to a bear market rally also hinges on macroeconomic clarity. With the U.S. government shutdown resolved and corporate earnings season concluding, markets may soon reassess Bitcoin's value proposition. Yet, until ETF inflows resume and long-term holders halt their sales, the odds of a sustained reversal remain low.

In the near term, BTC/USD appears trapped in a bearish consolidation phase. Traders should monitor the 50-week moving average ($96,000) as a critical support level; a breach here would likely extend the decline toward $90,000, where historical buying interest could finally emerge. Until then, the bear market reigns supreme.