BTC, ETH Hover Near "Max Pain": Expiry-Driven Volatility Could Tip Markets

Bitcoin and Ethereum face heightened volatility as over $22 billion in options contracts expire on September 26, 2025, triggering sharp price swings and strategic adjustments among traders. Data from Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, reveals $17.07 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and $5.12 billion in Ethereum (ETH) options maturing, with the majority of open interest concentrated on Deribit. The put-to-call ratio for BTC stands at 1.23, indicating bearish sentiment, while ETH’s ratio of 0.99 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. The max pain level for BTC is set at $110,000, and for ETH at $3,800, acting as gravitational price points where the largest number of contracts expire worthless.

Bitcoin’s price has retreated from its September 18 peak of $117,968 to $109,145 at the time of reporting, a 7.5% decline. Analysts warn that failure to reclaim the $114,500 level could push BTC toward $108,000, exacerbating bearish pressures. Ethereum, meanwhile, has fallen below $4,000, trading at $3,933, with a 17% drop from its monthly high. The altcoin’s proximity to its $3,800 max pain level raises the risk of further downward movement. Open interest in BTC futures remains near record highs, while ETH’s futures open interest has surged to 2.2 million ETH, reflecting elevated positioning.

The expiry event coincides with broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including U.S. GDP data releases and Treasury auctions, compounding market jitters. Deribit data highlights $1.4 billion in BTC put contracts at current levels, with $6.6 billion in call options maturing above $120,000. If BTC closes between $107,000 and $110,000, bearish bets dominate, creating a $1 billion net advantage for puts. Conversely, a close between $112,100 and $115,000 would favor bulls with a $600 million edge for calls. For ETH, a close near $3,800 could trigger a rebound, but analysts caution that breaking below $3,700 may extend losses toward $3,500.

Market participants are closely monitoring liquidity and funding rates. Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew of 13% shows puts trading at a premium over calls, signaling caution despite bullish setups. Ethereum’s negative funding rates highlight bearish short positions, while the annualized three-month basis for ETH has dropped to 7% from 9.8%, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Deribit’s put options for BTC and ETH continue to attract higher premiums than calls, painting a bearish technical picture.

The expiry event follows a week of outflows from crypto markets, with over $100 billion in total outflows and $300 million withdrawn from Ether ETFs. Institutional investors and traders are hedging portfolios as the market braces for potential volatility. Analysts like Ted Pillows and DustyBC note that BTC’s decline aligns with a correction phase, while ETH’s oversold conditions mirror patterns from previous dips. The combined $22 billion in expiring contracts is expected to amplify short-term price swings, with the broader market stabilizing post-expiry.