BTC's Bull Run: Retail Fervor vs. Silent Whales

Bitcoin’s on-chain data has revealed a significant influx of fresh demand into the cryptocurrency market, with over 73,000 BTC entering wallets younger than one month. This surge has reignited discussions about a potential bullish momentum in the market, as short-term holders (STH) and new investors appear to be absorbing selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH). The Net Position Change (NPC) metric for the youngest BTC holder cohort has turned positive, marking a key indicator of broadening market participation and investor confidence.

According to a CryptoQuant analysis, the NPC for wallets holding Bitcoin for less than one month hit +73,702 BTC on September 23, a stark reversal from a previous period of negative activity. This influx suggests that new capital is entering the market at an accelerated rate, driven by a combination of retail and institutional demand. The analysis highlights that this fresh demand is critical in offsetting the outflows from LTH, who are currently selling BTC at a rate of approximately -145,000 BTC. Such dynamics are typical of a bull market, where early investors realize profits while new entrants sustain price appreciation.

The accumulation trend is not limited to the youngest holder cohort. STH—investors who have held BTC for less than six months—have also seen their NPC rise to +159,098 BTC. This indicates robust demand across a spectrum of investors, reinforcing the notion of a strengthening market. The CryptoQuant contributor emphasized that the current dynamic, where profit-taking by LTH is met with strong demand from new buyers, is a classic characteristic of a maturing bull cycle. The positive flip in the youngest holder cohort serves as a leading indicator, signaling growing conviction among retail and institutional participants.

However, concerns persist regarding the sustainability of the rally. Exchange inflows remain elevated, raising fears of increased selling pressure, particularly from retail investors. Additionally, the absence of Bitcoin “whales”—wallets holding large BTC balances—from the current rally has prompted caution. These large holders, typically seen as key drivers of price momentum, have not yet joined the accumulation phase. Despite this, the Bitcoin network’s activity has reached a new 2025 peak, with the price stabilizing around $112,804.

Further analysis from accumulation wallet data underscores the broader structural strength of the market. Wallets holding over 10 BTC—classified as accumulation addresses—absorbed 30,754 BTC in a single period, totaling $3.3 billion in value. These addresses, which rarely sell, are now holding 2.91 million BTC, with an average accumulation price of $64,000. The trend suggests a shift in market behavior, as investors prioritize long-term holding over short-term trading. Corporate buyers and institutional treasuries have also contributed to this trend, with 3.41 million BTC now held in corporate reserves.

While the data points to a resilient market structure, analysts caution that the rally’s success will depend on the eventual participation of large holders. The current demand is being driven by retail and mid-tier whales, which, while indicative of optimism, may lack the capital to sustain a prolonged bull run. The fear and greed index, currently at 51, reflects a neutral market sentiment, down from recent extremes of greed, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

The synthesis of on-chain metrics and investor behavior suggests that Bitcoin’s market is navigating a critical juncture. The influx of fresh capital into young wallets and accumulation addresses, coupled with the absorption of LTH outflows, provides a structural foundation for continued price appreciation. However, the absence of whale participation and elevated exchange inflows highlight risks that could temper near-term gains. As the market absorbs these dynamics, the coming weeks will likely determine whether the rally transitions from a retail-driven phase to a broader institutional and macroeconomic-driven trend.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Market Sees Over 73,000 BTC Influx Into Wallets Younger Than 1 Month – Is A Rally Near? (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-market-73000-btc-wallets-1-month-rally/) [2] Accumulation wallets see the biggest BTC inflows for 2025 (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/accumulation-wallets-biggest-btc-inflows/) [3] BTC Accumulation Wallets: Key Trends, Insights, and Market … (https://www.okx.com/learn/btc-accumulation-wallets-trends-insights)