Broadcom, Zscaler y AppLovin: Análisis de la trayectoria de crecimiento en 2026

The investment case for these three companies rests on their ability to capture value within massive, expanding markets. For Broadcom and Zscaler, the thesis is clear: they are positioned at the core of secular growth engines with enormous total addressable markets. AppLovin's story is different; its scalability depends on successfully broadening its reach beyond its current stronghold.

Broadcom's dominance is built on the explosive growth of the AI chip market. This sector is projected to expand from $121.73 billion in 2026 to approximately $1,104.68 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 27.88%. This isn't a niche trend; it's a foundational shift in computing infrastructure. Broadcom's role as a key supplier of chips for data centers and AI workloads places it directly in the path of this multi-trillion-dollar expansion. The scalability of its business is inherent in this market's trajectory.

Zscaler's growth is similarly anchored in a massive, accelerating trend: cloud security. The company's financials show this demand translating directly into revenue. In its first quarter of fiscal 2026, Zscaler's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 26% year-over-year to $3.2 billion. This isn't just a high growth rate; it's a validation of the market's size and the company's leadership. As enterprises migrate to the cloud and adopt Zero Trust architectures, the demand for Zscaler's platform is becoming a necessity, not a choice. The scalability here is about capturing a larger share of a market that is itself growing at a double-digit pace.

AppLovin's position is more contained. Its core market is mobile in-app advertising, a segment forecast to reach $422 billion in 2026. While this is a large market, the company's growth story now hinges on its ability to expand its addressable market beyond this domain. Its recent push into AI-driven marketing tools and broader performance advertising represents an attempt to scale by moving into adjacent, high-growth areas. The risk is that its growth will eventually be capped by the maturity of the mobile gaming ad market, making market expansion its primary lever for sustained high growth.

Growth Drivers and Financial Execution

The financial results for these three companies reveal a clear picture of execution and scalability, with each leveraging distinct business drivers to fuel expansion. For investors, the key is to separate headline growth from the underlying momentum that will sustain it.

Broadcom's story is one of explosive, division-specific growth. While the company-wide revenue increase of 28% year-over-year is solid, the real engine is its AI semiconductor division. This segment, which includes custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for AI workloads, grew at a blistering 74% year-over-year to reach $6.5 billion in the quarter. This outsized performance, which is now outpacing even Nvidia's data center growth, demonstrates the scalability of Broadcom's design-for-hire model. The company's guidance for the next quarter-projecting AI semiconductor revenue of $8.2 billion-signals that this growth is not a one-time surge but a multi-year ramp. The business driver here is clear: enterprises seeking superior performance at lower cost are turning to Broadcom to build specialized chips, creating a high-margin, recurring revenue stream.

Zscaler's execution is equally impressive, but it is measured in the health of its subscription model. The company's first-quarter revenue grew 26% to $788.1 million, a rate that aligns with its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of 26%. More telling is the 32% year-over-year growth in deferred revenue to $2.35 billion. This metric is a leading indicator of future sales and reflects the strength of its enterprise sales cycle, where larger, multi-year platform deals are becoming more common. The company's recent raise in its full-year revenue forecast further validates this momentum. Financially, it is also transitioning to profitability, with non-GAAP operating margins expanding to 22%. The growth driver is the mandatory nature of cloud security in a Zero Trust world, amplified by AI-driven threats.

AppLovin presents a more nuanced picture. The company's recent stock decline after a revenue beat highlights the market's growing scrutiny on growth sustainability. While it has successfully expanded its platform to include AI-driven marketing tools, the core mobile advertising market is maturing. The investor reaction suggests that even strong quarterly results are being weighed against the long-term scalability of that market. The financial execution here is about managing this transition-using its platform strength to capture more value per ad dollar and broaden its addressable market-while the growth driver shifts from pure volume to technological differentiation and market expansion.

The bottom line is that all three companies are demonstrating scalable growth models. Broadcom's is powered by custom AI chips, Zscaler's by cloud security subscriptions, and AppLovin's by platform evolution. The financial metrics confirm the execution, but the path forward depends on each company's ability to maintain its specific growth drivers in a competitive landscape.

Valuation and Capital Allocation

The market is now applying a much sharper lens to AI-related growth, rotating away from infrastructure companies where the path to profitability is less clear. This selective environment means that capital allocation and the ability to convert spending into revenue will be the key differentiators for future scalability.

Investors have become wary of AI big spenders whose operating earnings are under pressure and whose capex is being funded with debt. The divergence in stock performance among hyperscalers is a clear signal: the market is no longer rewarding all AI infrastructure companies equally. Attention is shifting to companies that can demonstrate a direct link between their investments and future revenues. This sets a high bar for capital efficiency, where simply spending more is not enough.

For AppLovin, this dynamic is particularly relevant. Its scalability depends on moving beyond its gaming ad roots into higher-margin, non-gaming clients. This expansion requires significant investment in platform capabilities and client acquisition. The company's recent financials show it is building a strong foundation, with revenue surging and margins expanding. Yet the market's scrutiny means it must now prove that this investment will yield a broader, more profitable customer base. The capital allocation strategy here is about funding growth in new markets while maintaining the operational discipline that has driven its current success.

Broadcom and Zscaler, by contrast, are in a different position. Their capital allocation is focused on scaling proven, high-margin businesses. Broadcom is pouring resources into its AI chip design and manufacturing partnerships, a move that is already translating into explosive revenue growth. Zscaler is investing to deepen its enterprise sales cycle, evidenced by the 32% year-over-year growth in deferred revenue. For these companies, the market's selective approach reinforces the value of their models: they are spending to capture a massive, growing TAM, and the financial results are showing the payoff.

The bottom line is that in 2026, valuation will be less about the size of the market and more about the quality of the capital allocation. Companies that can fund their growth with strong cash generation and demonstrate a clear path to monetizing their investments will be the ones that continue to scale. For AppLovin, that means proving its platform expansion is a scalable, high-margin play. For the others, it means sustaining their high-return capital deployment.

Catalysts and Risks for 2026

The scalability thesis for these three growth stories now hinges on a handful of near-term catalysts and structural risks. The path to 2027 will be validated by execution on specific financial targets and the ability to navigate emerging pressures.

For Broadcom, the primary catalyst is the continued adoption of its custom AI chips by hyperscalers. The company's guidance for its AI semiconductor division to reach $8.2 billion in revenue next quarter is a critical near-term milestone. This trajectory, which could see AI revenue grow to $50 billion in fiscal 2026 according to some analysts, will validate the scalability of its design-for-hire model. The key risk, however, is a slowdown in AI data center spending. If enterprise capex for AI infrastructure moderates, it could directly pressure demand for Broadcom's high-performance ASICs, challenging the sustainability of its explosive growth.

Zscaler's immediate catalyst is the execution of its raised full-year revenue forecast. The company recently increased its outlook to $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, a move that reflects strong demand for its cloud security platform. Success in hitting this target, particularly through the continued signing of larger, multi-year enterprise deals, will demonstrate the scalability of its subscription model. The main risks are twofold: increased competition in the secure access service edge (SASE) market, where rivals like Palo Alto Networks are also raising forecasts, and macroeconomic pressure that could force enterprises to delay or cut IT security budgets.

AppLovin's catalyst is its successful diversification beyond its gaming ad roots. The company's push into AI-driven marketing tools and broader performance advertising is its primary lever for expanding its addressable market and sustaining high growth. The risk is its dependency on a single, volatile advertising market segment. While the mobile in-app ad market is large, its maturation and sensitivity to consumer spending cycles create a ceiling on growth if AppLovin cannot convincingly broaden its client base and revenue streams.