AVGO de Broadcom cae un 3.1% en medio de la turbulencia del sector: ¿Qué está causando esta caída?

Summary
• Broadcom (AVGO) trades at $330.97, down 3.65% intraday after opening at $342.92
• Nasdaq slumps as AI-driven tech stocks face profit-taking, while defense contractors surge on Trump’s $1.5T budget proposal
• Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay ETF (AVGW) drops 4.38%, Direxion Daily AVGO Bull 2X Shares (AVL) falls 7.31%

Broadcom’s sharp intraday decline reflects a broader market rotation out of high-growth tech stocks and into defense and energy sectors. The stock’s 3.65% drop to $330.97 follows a strategic shift by investors locking in gains from AI-driven rallies, while President Trump’s proposed defense budget has ignited a surge in defense contractors. With the Nasdaq underperforming and energy markets stabilizing, the selloff in AVGO highlights the sector’s vulnerability to macroeconomic reallocations.

Tech Profit-Taking and Defense Shift Drive AVGO Down
Broadcom’s 3.65% intraday drop is a direct consequence of a broader market rotation out of technology stocks, particularly AI-driven names, as traders secure profits after a recent rally. The Nasdaq’s sharp decline underscored the sector’s vulnerability, with AVGO falling alongside peers. Simultaneously, President Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 has redirected capital flows into defense contractors, with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin surging over 10% and 8%, respectively. This capital reallocation, combined with a rebound in energy markets, has amplified the selloff in tech. Analysts note the move reflects a tactical shift rather than a fundamental reevaluation of AVGO’s long-term prospects, as the stock remains 19.5% below its 52-week high.

Semiconductor Sector Volatile as AMD Trails AVGO
The semiconductor sector remains fragmented as Broadcom’s 3.65% decline contrasts with Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) 2.83% drop. While both face pressure from the broader tech selloff, AMD’s aggressive AI strategy and 35%+ CAGR growth projections position it as a more speculative play compared to AVGO’s mature, diversified revenue streams. However, AVGO’s 28% year-over-year revenue growth and $7.4B free cash flow in Q4 2025 highlight its resilience. The sector’s mixed performance underscores divergent investor sentiment: AVGO’s stability appeals to conservative capital, while AMD’s high-growth narrative attracts risk-on traders.

Options and ETF Plays Amid AVGO’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $292.15 (below current price), RSI: 52.01 (neutral), MACD: -5.98 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $403.34, Middle $353.99, Lower $304.63 (price near lower band)
• 30D Support: $348.63–$350.37, 200D Support: $338.30–$343.63

AVGO’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias amid a long-term ranging pattern. The stock is testing its 200-day MA and lower Bollinger Band, with key support at $338.30. Aggressive short-term traders may consider the Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay ETF (AVGW) for downside exposure, while leveraged bulls could use Direxion Daily AVGO Bull 2X Shares (AVL) for a rebound. The 30D RSI at 52.01 indicates neutral momentum, but the MACD histogram’s -0.63 suggests bearish momentum.

Top Options Plays:
1. AVGO20260116P320 (Put, Strike $320, Expiry 1/16):
• IV: 39.69% (moderate), Leverage: 89.43%, Delta: -0.28, Theta: -0.013, Gamma: 0.0163, Turnover: $1.45M
• High leverage and moderate delta position this put for a 5% downside scenario (projected payoff: $10.97).
• Ideal for capitalizing on a breakdown below $338.30 support.
2. AVGO20260116C340 (Call, Strike $340, Expiry 1/16):
• IV: 38.09%, Leverage: 76.07%, Delta: 0.34, Theta: -0.816, Gamma: 0.0185, Turnover: $1.65M
• Strong theta decay and gamma sensitivity make this call responsive to a rebound above $343.66 intraday high.
• Projected payoff: -$9.03 in a 5% downside scenario, but high gamma offers potential for rapid premium erosion if the stock stabilizes.

Action Alert: If $338.30 support breaks, AVGO20260116P320 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider AVGO20260116C340 into a bounce above $343.66.

Backtest Broadcom Stock Performance
The backtest of Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) after a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 56.05%, the 10-Day win rate is 61.36%, and the 30-Day win rate is 71.55%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 14.50% over 30 days, suggesting that AVGO has the potential for significant gains following a pullback.

AVGO’s Selloff: A Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign?
Broadcom’s 3.65% intraday drop reflects a tactical market rotation rather than a fundamental shift in its business model. With key support levels at $338.30 and a 200-day MA at $292.15, the stock remains in a long-term ranging pattern. Investors should monitor the 52-week low of $138.10 and the 52-week high of $414.61 for directional clues. The semiconductor sector’s mixed performance—led by AMD’s -2.83% decline—highlights divergent investor sentiment. For now, AVGO20260116P320 and AVGO20260116C340 offer high-leverage options to capitalize on volatility. Watch for a breakdown below $338.30 or a rebound above $343.66 to determine next steps.