¿Debería comprar, vender o mantener Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) en 2026? Inversión estratégica en medio de los acuíferos de patentes y el potencial de la tubería

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) stands at a pivotal crossroads in 2026 as it grapples with the impending patent expirations of its blockbuster drugs, Eliquis and Opdivo. These two products alone accounted for 51% of the company's total revenue in 2025, with Eliquis generating $11 billion and Opdivo contributing $7.4 billion in the first nine months of the year according to a recent analysis. However, as patent exclusivity for these drugs wanes, investors face a critical question: Can BMY's strategic initiatives and pipeline innovations offset the looming revenue declines, or does the patent cliff present an insurmountable risk?

The Patent Cliff: A Looming Revenue Crisis

The patent cliff for Eliquis is expected to materialize in the second half of 2026, with generic competition anticipated in the U.S. by April 2028 according to market research. Opdivo, meanwhile, will lose U.S. exclusivity by the end of 2028 as stated in the company's investor statement. These expirations threaten to erode nearly half of BMY's revenue base, a challenge compounded by pricing pressures in the pharmaceutical sector. Analysts project that the combined revenue loss from these two drugs could exceed $18 billion annually, representing a seismic shift for the company's top-line growth.

Mitigation Strategies: Innovation and Diversification

BMY's response to this crisis hinges on three pillars: product innovation, pipeline expansion, and strategic acquisitions.

1. Product Innovation: The company has launched Opdivo Qvantig, a subcutaneous formulation of Opdivo, which offers greater patient convenience and flexibility. This reformulation is designed to retain market share even after the original drug's patent expires according to market analysis. Similarly, BMY is leveraging its expertise in oncology to expand the indications for existing therapies, such as Opdualag and Breyanzi, which are projected to exceed $1 billion in sales for fiscal 2025 as reported by industry analysts.

2. Pipeline Potential: BMY's Growth Portfolio includes high-potential drugs like Reblozyl, which has achieved an annualized sales run rate above $2 billion for treating anemia in beta-thalassemia patients according to financial reports.

   
   Breyanzi and Opdualag are also on track to join the blockbuster club, with their adoption in large B-cell lymphoma and melanoma markets driving growth according to financial reports. While these drugs are not yet expected to fully offset the losses from Eliquis and Opdivo, their trajectory suggests a gradual transition toward a more diversified revenue stream.

3. Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: In Q4 2025, BMY acquired Orbital Therapeutics, bolstering its cell therapy portfolio with RNA-based in vivo CAR T-cell therapies according to industry news. Additionally, a global partnership with BioNTech to co-develop bispecific antibody BNT327 underscores BMY's commitment to next-generation oncology treatments as detailed in business development materials. These moves signal a proactive approach to replenishing its pipeline and maintaining competitive differentiation.

Valuation and Analyst Perspectives

From a valuation standpoint, BMY appears undervalued by traditional metrics. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests the stock is undervalued by approximately 53.9%, with an intrinsic value of $117.66 per share according to financial modeling. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.3x is also below the industry average of 19.7x according to financial modeling. Analysts, however, remain divided. Bull cases assume a fair value near $65 per share, citing strong growth in the Growth Portfolio and cost-saving initiatives, while bear cases project a fair value closer to $53.55 per share due to patent cliffs and pricing pressures according to financial modeling.
The company's robust dividend yield of 4.58% and a sustainable cash payout ratio of 35% further enhance its appeal to income-focused investors as reported in investment analysis. However, the near-term revenue risks from patent expirations necessitate caution, as the pipeline's growth may take years to fully materialize.

Conclusion: A Calculated Hold with Long-Term Potential

BMY's 2026 outlook is a study in contrasts. While the patent cliff for Eliquis and Opdivo poses significant near-term risks, the company's strategic initiatives-ranging from product innovation to aggressive R&D investments-position it to navigate this transition. The undervalued stock and strong dividend profile add to its attractiveness, but the timeline for pipeline-driven growth remains uncertain.

For strategic value investors, BMY warrants a "Hold" rating in 2026. The company's ability to mitigate revenue declines through Opdivo Qvantig and its Growth Portfolio offers a path to long-term resilience. However, investors should monitor the pace of generic competition and the performance of newer drugs like Reblozyl and Breyanzi. Those with a longer time horizon and a tolerance for near-term volatility may find BMY's discounted valuation and transformative pipeline compelling, but patience will be key.