Braskem's Strategic Asset Sales and Ownership Shake-Up: Navigating Catalysts and Risks for Investors

Brazil's Braskem SA, the largest petrochemical company in Latin America, is at a crossroads. Amid a perfect storm of rising debt, weak global petrochemical margins, and a complex ownership structure, the company is exploring the sale of its U.S. assets—a move that could reshape its financial trajectory. However, the path forward is fraught with contradictions: management insists the U.S. plants are “fundamental” to its strategy, while financial pressures demand liquidity. For investors, the interplay of asset sales, debt restructuring, and competing takeover bids presents both opportunities and risks.

The Catalysts: Liquidity Needs and Strategic Realignment

Braskem's net debt has ballooned to $6.8 billion as of Q2 2025, equivalent to 10.6 times its EBITDA—a sharp rise from 7.98 times in late March. This leverage, coupled with a 49% drop in its stock price over the past year and bonds trading at distressed levels (e.g., 8.5% 2031 bonds at 74 cents on the dollar), has forced the company to act. The proposed $1 billion sale of U.S. polypropylene plants in Texas, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia could provide critical liquidity.

The U.S. assets, including five plants and two R&D labs, are strategically significant but also capital-intensive. Their divestiture aligns with Braskem's “Resilience & Transformation Program,” aimed at improving EBITDA and cash flow. Unipar Carbocloro, a regional chlor-alkali and PVC leader, sees the assets as a gateway to North America, while Braskem could use proceeds to reduce debt, fund sustainability initiatives, or invest in its Brazilian core.

The Risks: Stakeholder Resistance and Regulatory Hurdles

Despite the financial logic, internal and external resistance complicates the sale. Brazilian billionaire Nelson Tanure, in exclusive talks to acquire Novonor's controlling stake in Braskem, has reportedly opposed the U.S. asset divestiture, arguing it contradicts the company's long-term vision. Similarly, private equity firm IG4 Capital, which proposed a debt-equity swap for Novonor's stake, views the U.S. assets as a strategic anchor. Braskem's CEO has publicly denied any intent to sell, emphasizing the plants' role in green petrochemicals.

Regulatory risks also loom. Antitrust reviews and approvals from Braskem's governance bodies (which include Petrobras and Novonor) could delay or derail the deal. Unipar's prior failed bid for a controlling stake in Braskem in 2023 highlights the political and legal complexities of cross-border transactions in Brazil's petrochemical sector.

The Ownership Shake-Up: A Double-Edged Sword

The Tanure-IG4 Capital rivalry adds another layer of uncertainty. Tanure's $1.9 billion offer for Novonor's 50.1% stake in Braskem hinges on creditor approvals, particularly from banks holding $15 billion in Novonor debt. If successful, Tanure could push for a debt restructuring, potentially including asset sales or equity infusions. However, his proposal faces skepticism from creditors who fear undervaluing Braskem's assets.

Meanwhile, IG4 Capital's debt-equity swap plan could stabilize Braskem's balance sheet but may lack the liquidity of a U.S. asset sale. For investors, the outcome of these ownership battles will determine whether Braskem's strategic focus remains on cost-cutting or aggressive restructuring.

Investment Implications: Balancing Hopes and Realities

For investors, the key question is whether Braskem can execute a disciplined asset sale without sacrificing long-term value. A $1 billion infusion could reduce leverage to sustainable levels (targeting 5–6x EBITDA) and stabilize bondholder confidence. However, the risk of overpaying for short-term liquidity or losing critical R&D capabilities in the U.S. must be weighed.

The Tanure deal, if finalized, could catalyze a broader restructuring but may also trigger shareholder lawsuits or regulatory pushback. Meanwhile, a failed asset sale or prolonged ownership transition could deepen Braskem's crisis, leading to a forced default or emergency financing.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Game of Chess

Braskem's journey is a textbook case of strategic ambiguity. While the U.S. asset sale offers a lifeline, its execution depends on aligning stakeholders with divergent interests. Investors should monitor three key developments:
1. Regulatory approvals for the asset sale and Tanure's bid.
2. Debt restructuring terms and their impact on Braskem's credit profile.
3. Management's commitment to green petrochemicals amid cost-cutting pressures.

For now, Braskem remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition. A successful restructuring could unlock value, but missteps could deepen its woes. As the petrochemical industry grapples with global headwinds, Braskem's ability to navigate this crossroads will define its future—and its investors' fortunes.