Bper CEO Confident in Exceeding 50% in Sondrio Takeover Bid, Reiterates 2025 Guidance

Bper's CEO is confident that the bank will exceed the 50% threshold in its takeover bid for Popolare di Sondrio, which concludes on Friday. Despite the bid being improved with an additional euro in cash, the board of directors of Popolare di Sondrio will review the offer today. The CEO also reaffirmed Bper's forecasts for 2025 following a very positive second quarter and first part of the year.

Italian lender BPER Banca has significantly enhanced its takeover bid for Banca Popolare di Sondrio (BP Sondrio), aiming to secure a majority stake in the smaller rival. The revised offer, announced on Thursday, values BP Sondrio at approximately 5.47 billion euros ($6.43 billion), up from the initial bid of around 4.3 billion euros [1]. This represents a significant increase, driven by the addition of a cash component to the offer.

BPER Banca's latest bid includes 1.45 new BPER shares and an additional 1.0 euro in cash for each of BP Sondrio's around 451.8 million shares [1]. This move is part of BPER's strategy to gain scale and defend its market position amidst the consolidation wave sweeping through Italy's banking sector [2]. The offer period for BP Sondrio shareholders to tender their shares opened last month and runs until July 11.

The Italian competition watchdog, AGCM, conditionally approved the deal earlier this week, subject to the sale of six branches—five of BPER's and one of BP Sondrio's—within 10 months of the deal's completion [3]. Despite the regulatory condition, BPER's CEO, Gianni Franco Papa, remains confident that the bank will exceed the 50% threshold in its takeover bid.

In a statement, Papa reaffirmed BPER's financial forecasts for 2025, citing a very positive second quarter and first part of the year. The board of directors of BP Sondrio is set to review the improved offer today, with the bid conclusion scheduled for Friday.

Analysts at Jefferies and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have expressed that the revised offer seems justifiable, given the strategic soundness of the deal and the solid end-point capital position [1, 3]. The increased offer comes just weeks after Papa stated that BPER would stick to its current bid.

The Italian banking sector has witnessed a wave of bids and offers in the last year, with UniCredit's all-share offer for Banco BPM being one of the most notable examples [3]. BPER's market capitalization of about 10.9 billion euros is more than double that of mid-sized lender BP Sondrio's market value of 5.32 billion euros [3].

Shares in BP Sondrio rose around 2% at market open on Friday, while BPER's shares edged down by 0.3% [1]. The market's reaction underscores the complexity and potential impact of the consolidation wave in Italy's financial sector.

References:

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-s-bper-banca-bumps-popolare-di-sondrio-offer-to-6-4-billion-0f5245b1

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/m/73a34d3e-e522-3aad-8de8-953c0c8404ce/italy%E2%80%99s-bper-banca-bumps.html

[3] https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BPER-BANCA-S-P-A-76152/news/Italian-lender-BPER-boosts-Pop-Sondrio-bid-to-6-39-billion-50421023/