Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) Market Overview

• ZKCUSDC traded lower in a tight range, closing at 0.3452 after a 24-hour high of 0.3642 and low of 0.3294.
• Volume surged during the late hours of October 2, then declined sharply after 02:00 ET.
• RSI showed overbought and oversold conditions, suggesting short-term mean reversion may be in play.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:30 ET, followed by a bullish reversal at 05:15 ET.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion, with price frequently near the midband.

Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at 0.3343 on October 2 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3452 on October 3 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 0.3642, and the low hit 0.3294. Total volume amounted to 5,611,664.7, while turnover was approximately $1,935,150. The price action reflected alternating bullish and bearish momentum across the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern suggests a dynamic tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:30 ET, signaling potential bearish momentum, but was countered by a bullish reversal at 05:15 ET, which pulled the price back toward the midrange of the 24-hour range. A doji formed at 04:30 ET, indicating indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels emerged near 0.3365 and 0.3321, while resistance appears at 0.345 and 0.349. These levels are likely to see renewed testing in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed multiple times, reflecting choppy conditions. The price oscillates around the 50-period MA, which currently sits at approximately 0.3417. The 20-period MA sits slightly above it, indicating a potential shift toward bullish momentum. However, the daily MA (50/100/200) shows a more neutral trend, with the price hovering near the 50-day MA at 0.342. This suggests a short-term consolidation phase is likely.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in the neutral to negative range, with a recent cross of the signal line indicating bearish momentum earlier in the session. RSI fluctuated between overbought and oversold territory, hitting a high of 63.5 and a low of 36.2. This suggests the price may be consolidating after a period of exhaustion in both directions. The RSI crossover above 50 at 05:00 ET hinted at short-term bullish re-entry, but this was quickly followed by a reversal downward.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion, with the price frequently trading near the midband, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. The upper band reached 0.3642, and the lower band hit 0.3294, with the price bouncing off the lower band multiple times during the night. A contraction in bandwidth occurred around 04:30 ET, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown could follow in the next 24 hours. Traders should watch for the price to break out of the current range with increased volume for confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early hours of October 2, particularly between 17:30 and 19:45 ET, when large-volume candles pushed the price upward. After that, volume sharply declined, especially after 02:00 ET. This suggests that the bullish move may have run out of steam. Notional turnover remained relatively stable, but divergences emerged late in the session, as price moved lower while volume remained low. This weak confirmation may indicate a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high (0.3642) and low (0.3294), the 38.2% level is at 0.3491 and the 61.8% level is at 0.3391. The price appears to have tested the 61.8% level multiple times during the session but failed to break through it. This level may continue to act as a key support zone. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels appear near 0.353 and 0.338, respectively, suggesting potential areas of interest for further consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent consolidation and repeated tests of key support/resistance levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion trade using RSI and Fibonacci retracements as triggers. Specifically, entering a long position when RSI drops below 35 and the price retests the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a bullish reversal candle. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.3365 support, while a target could be set at 0.345–0.349. Alternatively, a short trade could be triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern above 0.3491 with RSI above 65, targeting a pullback toward 0.340–0.336. This strategy would require confirmation via volume and candlestick patterns to avoid false breakouts or breakdowns.