Booking Holdings: Can BKNG’s Travel Dominance and AI Edge Secure a Top Spot in NASDAQ’s Upside Race?

The Case for BKNG’s Momentum
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) has emerged as a standout in the post-pandemic travel rebound, but is its recent performance enough to cement it among NASDAQ’s elite? Analysts and investors are closely watching the company’s Q1 2025 earnings report, due April 29, for clues about its trajectory. With a projected 36% upside potential—placing it 13th among NASDAQ stocks—the question isn’t just about growth, but whether BKNG can sustain its edge against both traditional competitors and disruptors like AI-driven peers.

Strengths: Revenue Growth, AI Integration, and Financial Fortitude
BKNG’s Q4 2024 results were a masterclass in resilience. Despite a challenging macro backdrop, the company reported 45% year-over-year transaction growth, driven by surging flight bookings (up 38% to 50 million airline tickets annually) and its Genius Royalty program, which now accounts for over 30% of active travelers. The latter initiative, which rewards loyal users with discounts and perks, has become a retention powerhouse, locking in recurring revenue streams.

Looking ahead, BKNG’s FY 2025 guidance is audacious: $215.17 EPS versus a consensus of $201.90, with revenue of $25.6 billion versus $25.3 billion. This confidence stems partly from its AI Trip Planner and Penny, tools that streamline customer interactions and reduce operational costs. The company’s $20 billion buyback program and $9.60 quarterly dividend further signal financial strength, even as debt remains a concern.

The NASDAQ Upside Context
BKNG’s 36% upside potential ranking (per Finviz/Insider Monkey data) is impressive, but the list is crowded with faster-growing names. For instance, AI-focused stocks like Palantir (PLTR) or C3.ai (AI) have seen speculative fervor driving shorter-term returns. However, BKNG’s trailing P/E of 34.05 and forward P/E of 27.62 suggest investors are pricing in tangible growth, not just hype. Its PEG ratio of 1.68, while above the industry average, aligns with its innovation investments.

Crucially, BKNG’s $165 billion in annual platform sales and dominance across brands like Booking.com and Priceline give it scale few rivals can match. The “connected trip vision”—integrating flights, hotels, and activities into seamless packages—positions it to capture more of the $2 trillion global travel market.

Risks and Cautions
No stock is without risks. BKNG’s negative debt-to-equity ratio (-412.9%) reflects aggressive debt financing, though its cash reserves ($13.6 billion as of Q4 2024) provide a buffer. Insider selling has also been a headwind, with executives offloading shares in recent quarters.

Moreover, while AI tools like Penny are promising, they’re still in early stages. Competitors like Expedia (EXPE) and Amadeus IT (AMAD) are also doubling down on AI, raising the stakes for execution. A slowdown in global travel demand—a risk if economic growth falters—could also crimp margins, though BKNG’s 2024 TTM revenue of $23.74 billion suggests robust demand resilience.

Conclusion: A Long-Term Bet on Travel’s Future
BKNG isn’t a high-risk, high-reward play like many NASDAQ darlings. Instead, it’s a defensive growth stock with structural advantages in a rebounding industry. Its $20 billion buyback, AI-driven efficiency gains, and market leadership justify its 36% upside potential—especially compared to peers.

While AI-centric stocks may offer hotter short-term gains, BKNG’s fundamentals argue for patience. With 12.36% EPS growth forecast for 2025 and a dividend yield of 0.4% (not high, but stable), this is a stock for investors willing to bet on travel’s enduring nature—and BKNG’s ability to dominate it.

In the NASDAQ upside race, BKNG isn’t the fastest sprinter, but it’s built for the marathon.