Bonk/Tether Market Overview

Summary

• Price tested a prior low but found support, forming a bullish rebound structure.• Volatility dipped during the overnight hours but has since increased.• On-balance volume suggests strong participation in the morning rebound.• RSI indicates moderate oversold conditions, hinting at potential reversal.• MACD bottom divergence observed in the morning, signaling potential trend change.

Market Overview

Bonk/Tether (BONKUSDT) opened at $0.00001228 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00001185 on 2025-11-04 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.00001252 and a low of $0.00001146 during the 24-hour period. Total volume for the session was 979,568,985,600.0, and notional turnover reached $11,754.46.

The price action showed a consolidation phase during the overnight hours before a morning rebound from the $0.00001170 support level. A doji candle on 2025-1104 00:00000 hinted at indecision, while the following hammer on 2025-1104 00:1500 suggested a potential short-term reversal. The 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA during the early hours of the morning, indicating a possible uptrend, though the 50-period MA remained bearish for the daily chart.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels observed included $0.00001170 and $0.00001146, with the latter acting as a critical floor. Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern from $0.00001170 to $0.00001185 on the 2025-1104 00:1500 candle. A doji at the session low and a bullish pin bar later in the day suggested a potential reversal. These patterns indicate that short-term buyers have re-entered the market after a prolonged bearish move.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover at the session open, but the line diverged from the price in the morning, forming a bottom divergence. This suggests the bearish momentum may be weakening. RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold territory, but has yet to show a strong reversal above 40. This points to potential for a bounce, though confirmation is needed before a strong bullish signal can be confirmed.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility remained contracted during the overnight hours but expanded in the morning, as evidenced by a widened band. Price tested the lower band multiple times before a break higher. This volatility expansion typically precedes directional moves, and the current positioning near the upper band suggests a potential pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rebound, confirming the bullish structure. However, the overall volume remained elevated but did not show a significant increase after the morning low. This suggests the market may not yet be fully convinced of a reversal. Turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the strength of the morning move but not showing a breakout in trading intensity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing low at $0.00001146 and the high at $0.00001252, price found support at the 61.8% retracement level ($0.00001170) and is now testing the 50% level at $0.00001199. A break above this could indicate further strength, while a failure to hold suggests continued bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of MACD bottom divergence and RSI oversold conditions during the morning low, a backtesting strategy involving short-covering or opening long positions on confirmation appears plausible. For a reliable back-test, a starting date of 2023-12-15 is recommended. Assuming a strategy of opening long positions upon MACD bottom divergence, with RSI < 50 for exit signals, historical data will allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach. The results will help assess whether such a setup historically has led to profitable entries, particularly in this volatile asset.