Bonfida/Tether USDt Market Overview – 2025-09-05

• Bonfida/Tether USDt (FIDAUSDT) climbed to a 24-hour high of $0.0869 amid a late-day rally before consolidating near $0.0857.
• Price formed a bullish harami pattern on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a potential reversal after a bearish breakdown attempt.
• Volatility expanded sharply post-12:00 ET, with volume surging on the rally, confirming strength in the upward move.
• RSI moved out of oversold territory and approached neutral levels, indicating a possible stabilization in momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late-day surge, reflecting heightened market participation and uncertainty.

Bonfida/Tether USDt (FIDAUSDT) opened at $0.0829 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $0.0869. The pair closed at $0.0857 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET after trading as low as $0.0821. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 6,662,243.03, while notional turnover was $548,869.49.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a key support level forming near $0.0827–$0.0828 during the afternoon of 2025-09-04, where the price reversed multiple times. A bullish harami pattern emerged in the early hours of 2025-09-05 around $0.0856–$0.0857, which may signal a short-term reversal following a brief bearish pullback. A key resistance level appears to be forming at $0.0869, with the price failing to break above it during a high-volume push.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bullish bias, with the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA in the early morning of 2025-09-05. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA are closely aligned around $0.0845–$0.0850, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

The MACD turned positive in the evening of 2025-09-04, with a bearish crossover followed by a strong bullish crossover in the morning of 2025-09-05. RSI moved out of oversold territory, stabilizing in the mid-50s, indicating that buying pressure is gaining ground but not yet reaching overbought levels.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable expansion during the late-day rally, reflecting increased volatility. Price closed near the upper band at $0.0869, which may act as a temporary ceiling. A contraction occurred earlier in the day, followed by a breakout that confirmed the move higher. This pattern suggests a period of consolidation may follow.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the late-day rally, particularly between 13:00–14:00 ET, when the price moved from $0.0861 to $0.0869. Notional turnover also spiked, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence is visible between price and volume during the afternoon dip, as price declined but volume remained muted, suggesting weak bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart indicate a 61.8% level at $0.0862 and a 38.2% level at $0.0854. The recent pullback found support at the 38.2% level, reinforcing its importance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement is at $0.0859, aligning with the recent high, suggesting a possible stall or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period moving average as a trigger and RSI to confirm momentum. For instance, long entries could be triggered when price closes above the 20SMA and RSI crosses above 50. Stop-losses could be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The recent bullish harami and volume confirmation suggest this setup could be tested with favorable risk/reward.