Bonfida/Tether Market Overview: Range Consolidation and Rising Volatility on FIDAUSDT

• FIDAUSDT traded in a descending range with a 24-hour low of $0.0903 and a high of $0.0940.
• Price consolidated near key support at $0.0915–0.0918, failing to break convincingly lower.
• On-chain volume surged during the $0.0906–0.0918 selloff, suggesting heightened participation.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, but signs of stabilizing buying interest emerged in the last 4 hours.
• Bollinger Bands show narrowing volatility before a potential breakout attempt.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at $0.0936 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0915 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.0940 and a low of $0.0903. The total 24-hour volume was 10,221,392.0 and the total turnover amounted to $937,529.57.

Over the last 24 hours, FIDAUSDT formed a descending channel with key support at $0.0915–0.0918 and resistance at $0.0925–0.0928. Notable patterns include a hanging man candle at $0.0923–0.0926 on 2025-09-20 at 21:45 and a potential bullish engulfing pattern at $0.0916–0.0918 on 2025-09-21 at 11:45. These suggest short-term indecision and a possible reversal if buyers re-enter the fray.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, with the 50SMA acting as a dynamic resistance around $0.0921–0.0923. The daily chart shows the 50DMA at $0.0925, 100DMA at $0.0931, and 200DMA at $0.0935—suggesting a bearish bias for near-term price action.

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MACD turned negative early on 2025-09-20, confirming bearish momentum, and has remained in negative territory, while RSI dipped into oversold territory around $0.0906–0.0910 on 2025-09-21 at 09:30. This could signal a short-term bounce, but a close above $0.0923 on the 15-minute chart would be necessary for a more robust bullish reversal. Bollinger Bands have narrowed between $0.0910 and $0.0925, indicating a potential breakout in the next 4–8 hours.

Fibonacci retracements from the $0.0906 low to the $0.0940 high identified key levels at $0.0918 (61.8%), $0.0925 (78.6%), and $0.0929 (88.6%). Price has consolidated around $0.0918, and a break below this level could target the next Fibonacci support at $0.0910. Volume surged during the $0.0906–0.0918 decline, but recent volume has moderated, suggesting buyers may be testing the support area.

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Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-term reversal strategy could involve a long entry at a 3% retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0918, with a stop-loss below $0.0910 and a take-profit target at $0.0925–0.0928. This aligns with a bullish engulfing pattern seen on 2025-09-21 at 11:45 and the overbought RSI divergence. A backtest using this setup would need to evaluate the frequency of similar patterns, win-rate, and risk-reward ratio across multiple cycles, particularly during high-volume events.

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