BNB/Yen Market Overview for 2025-09-19

• Price declined sharply from 147,546 to 145,086 JPY on 2025-09-19, reflecting bearish momentum and oversold conditions on RSI.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening from 147,500 to 145,000 JPY as price dropped below key support levels.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 147,500, suggesting short-term continuation of the downtrend.
• Notional turnover surged to 146,386 JPY as price approached the 145,000 JPY level, signaling increased selling pressure.
• MACD crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence, reinforcing the potential for further downside.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) opened at 147,326 JPY, reached a high of 147,851 JPY, and closed at 145,609 JPY after hitting a low of 144,475 JPY. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume amounted to 239.3183 BNB, and the total notional turnover reached approximately ¥36,602,397 (calculated using OHLCV data). The session was defined by a sharp bearish reversal following a brief morning rally.

Structure & Formations

A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the early morning (07:30–07:45 ET), where the price opened at 147,353 and closed at 147,496 after touching a high of 147,851. This was followed by a sharp reversal, with price dropping below key intraday support levels, including 147,000 and 146,500. A large bearish candle formed at 146,607–146,250 JPY during the 12:00–12:15 ET window, signaling exhaustion in the prior rally and a potential continuation of bearish momentum. The 145,000–145,500 JPY range appears to be forming as a new support zone, with a bearish Doji visible at 145,086 JPY near the close.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show a clear bearish crossover, with price decisively below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 100-period MA is also acting as dynamic resistance, currently at 146,800–147,000 JPY. Price is projected to test these levels again in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 07:45 ET, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line in a bearish crossover. Histogram bars have remained negative for over 10 consecutive periods, suggesting sustained bearish momentum. RSI has dropped into oversold territory (30–40) since 11:30 ET, indicating a potential short-term rebound may occur but without a strong bullish reversal pattern. A divergence between RSI and price during the morning session suggests further weakness is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning, with the Bollinger Band width increasing from a narrow 147,500–147,000 JPY range to a wide 147,851–144,475 JPY band. Price closed near the lower band, indicating an overextended move to the downside. A contraction in the bands could signal a potential reversal, but current momentum does not favor such a scenario. Traders should watch for a potential bounce off the lower band if volume picks up at the 145,000 JPY level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp morning sell-off, with the largest notional turnover occurring in the 07:30–07:45 and 08:15–08:30 ET windows. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the 10:00–10:30 ET period, where price continued to decline but volume waned slightly, suggesting temporary exhaustion. However, the 145,600–145,000 JPY range saw a modest increase in volume at the close, indicating some accumulation might be taking place. This could be a sign of a short-term bottom forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 147,851–144,475 JPY swing, the 38.2% level sits at 146,407 JPY, and the 61.8% level is at 145,682 JPY. Price has closed just below the 61.8% level at 145,609, suggesting the immediate near-term low is within this zone. On a daily chart, retracement levels for the broader 147,500–145,000 JPY move are likely to be tested again tomorrow if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold readings as entry triggers, with a stop loss above the 147,000 JPY resistance level and a target near 144,500 JPY, using the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as a potential exit point. The divergence in volume and price during the 10:00–10:30 ET window could also be used to refine the entry, favoring entries after a confirmed break below 145,500 JPY with an increase in turnover. This setup may align well with the broader bearish trend identified in the 24-hour analysis, though it should be tested over multiple cycles for robustness.