¿El BNB se acerca a un repunte a corto plazo en medio de una presión alcista y de una inseguridad regulatoria?

The Binance Coin (BNB) market narrative in late 2025 is a tug-of-war between bearish fundamentals and cautiously optimistic technical signals. With the token trading near $883.95 as of November 26, 2025, investors are scrutinizing whether BNB can stage a short-term rebound amid a broader crypto market slump and regulatory ambiguity. This analysis synthesizes technical and on-chain data to assess the likelihood of a reversal.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Setup with Bullish Catalysts

BNB's price action in November 2025 reveals a complex interplay of bearish and bullish indicators. The token is currently consolidating around the 200-day moving average (SMA) at $851.26, a critical psychological support level as reported. However, short-term moving averages (MA10, MA50, and MA200) remain bearish, as BNB has not closed above these levels in months. This divergence suggests a potential exhaustion of downward momentum, particularly as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hovers at 41.70-a neutral reading that leaves room for upward correction before reaching overbought territory according to analysis.

The MACD histogram, a key momentum indicator, provides a glimmer of hope. A recent reading of +4.5460 signals that the downtrend is losing steam according to technical analysis. Traders are advised to monitor daily closes above $920 and a MACD line crossover above the signal line as potential catalysts for a rebound. Key resistance levels at $1,019.56 and $1,010.81 could act as psychological barriers to rekindle bullish sentiment, while a breakdown below $790.79 or the 200-day SMA at $849.00 would confirm a deeper bearish trend according to market analysis.

Notably, BNB's price action remains closely correlated with Bitcoin's post-holiday consolidation, suggesting that broader market sentiment will play a decisive role in its near-term trajectory as reported.

On-Chain Analysis: Liquidity Deterioration and Forced Liquidations

On-chain metrics paint a more dire picture. Daily transactions on the BNB Chain have plummeted by 57% compared to recent peaks, signaling reduced network engagement and liquidity. This decline exacerbates bearish pressure, as lower on-chain activity often precedes further capitulation.

Price-wise, BNB's drop below $865 in December 2025 marked a critical breakdown, with the token trading below its 30-day moving average according to market data. Analysts warn that a breach of the $805 support level could trigger forced liquidations, pushing BNB toward the $700 range and putting over $20 million in long positions at risk according to market analysis. Despite this, some models suggest a potential recovery to $950–$1,000 by year-end, contingent on key support levels holding firm as reported.

Regulatory Uncertainty: A Double-Edged Sword

Regulatory developments in November 2025 have introduced additional volatility. The U.S. Department of Justice's (DOJ) consideration of removing Binance's independent compliance monitor-a condition from a $4.3 billion settlement in 2023-briefly pushed BNB to an all-time high of $955.36 in September 2025 according to financial reports. However, this optimism was short-lived, as the token slipped below $960 in November amid broader market selloffs according to market analysis.

While the DOJ's decision could theoretically ease regulatory headwinds for Binance and BNB, the broader crypto market remains in a risk-off environment. The VanEck Crypto Monthly Recap for November 2025 noted a 76% month-over-month revenue drop for BNB, reflecting waning institutional and retail confidence according to the report.

Conclusion: A Cautious Case for a Short-Term Rebound

BNB's technical and on-chain indicators suggest a fragile balance between bearish exhaustion and potential short-term recovery. The RSI's neutral stance and MACD's bullish divergence hint at a possible rebound, but these signals must be confirmed by sustained price action above $920 and a breakout of key resistance levels. On-chain data, however, underscores the risks of further capitulation, particularly if liquidity continues to deteriorate.

For traders, the path forward hinges on two critical factors: (1) whether BNB can hold above $790.79 to avoid a cascade of forced liquidations and (2) broader macroeconomic conditions, including the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory according to market analysis. Regulatory clarity-particularly around the DOJ's decision-could also act as a wildcard.

In the absence of a fundamental shift in market sentiment or regulatory posture, BNB's short-term rebound remains speculative. Investors should approach with caution, using strict stop-loss orders and position sizing to mitigate risks in this volatile environment.