BLURUSDT Market Overview: Downtrend Gains Momentum Amid Oversold Conditions

• Price drifted down from 0.08652 to 0.08281 over 24 hours, closing near session lows.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 17:30 ET candle, reaching 2.49M, signaling heightened activity.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum, with RSI dipping into oversold territory after the selloff.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the early session, indicating increased volatility.
• A bullish 61.8% Fib level at ~0.0855 may be a key near-term target for a counter-trend bounce.

The BLURUSDT pair for Blur/Tether opened at 0.08415 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and closed at 0.08281 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET, registering a high of 0.08652 and a low of 0.0827. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 6.01M contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $494,240.

The 24-hour candle pattern shows a bearish drift with strong selling pressure evident after the 17:30 ET candle, where price gapped lower following a 50% retest of a prior bullish swing high. A significant doji formed near the 0.0852 level, indicating indecision before the downward breakdown. Support is now testing at 0.0827–0.0829, where the last two candles have found a temporary floor. A key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level lies at ~0.0855, which may serve as a potential reversal trigger if buyers re-enter the market.

Price action suggests a bearish continuation, with the 20/50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart sloping downward, reinforcing the near-term bear trend. MACD remains bearish, with the histogram widening as price drops, and RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, this does not guarantee a reversal—oversold levels can persist during strong trends. Bollinger Bands show volatility expanding after a consolidation phase, consistent with a breakout phase in a downtrend.

The 15-minute chart also shows a bearish breakout pattern from a key bullish consolidation range that formed earlier in the session. The 50-period MA is below the 20-period MA, confirming a bearish bias. A potential counter-trend bounce could face resistance at the 0.0830–0.0835 level, where volume and open/close prices in the 09:30–10:45 ET range clustered. If price fails to hold above 0.0827, the next support level lies at 0.0824, which could trigger deeper corrections.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could be built around a Fibonacci retracement-based mean reversion approach, triggered when price retests the 61.8% level from a recent bearish leg. A long position may be entered at a stop above the 0.0855 Fib level, with a stop-loss just below the 0.0827 support level. A take-profit could be placed near the 0.0861 high from earlier in the session. This setup may be more viable if RSI and MACD show signs of divergence while the price remains in oversold territory. However, given the strong downtrend, this trade may be at risk if sellers continue to dominate after the close.