Blockchain Prediction Markets Clash with Gambling Laws as Romania Bans Polymarket

Romania's National Office for Gambling (ONJN) has banned blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket for operating without a license, marking the latest regulatory challenge for the platform as it seeks a U.S. comeback. The move adds Romania to a growing list of jurisdictions—including Belgium, France, and Poland—that have cracked down on Polymarket's activities, citing concerns over unregulated gambling, according to a DL News article. The ONJN classified Polymarket's services as "counterparty betting," a category requiring state-issued licenses under Romania's gambling monopoly framework. Regulators highlighted an "explosive increase" in user activity during the country's May 2025 elections, with over $600 million wagered on the presidential race and $15 million on Bucharest's local elections, according to an iGaming Today report. Vlad-Cristian Soare, ONJN president, emphasized that the ban was "not related to technology, but to the law," stressing that blockchain infrastructure does not exempt the platform from licensing requirements. The regulator ordered internet service providers to block access for Romanian users "within a reasonable period of time," as SBC News reported.

Polymarket's regulatory struggles extend beyond Europe. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the platform $1.4 million and forced it to block U.S. users for operating an unregistered derivatives platform, according to a CoinDesk report. However, the company is now preparing a November relaunch in the U.S., leveraging its recent acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-registered exchange. This move aims to comply with federal regulations while differentiating Polymarket from competitors like Kalshi and Truth Social's prediction platform by relying entirely on blockchain and stablecoins, as reported by DL News. The relaunch will initially focus on sports betting markets, targeting high-profile events such as the NFL and NBA.

Despite these efforts, Polymarket faces an uphill battle in both the U.S. and Europe. In the EU, regulators have consistently argued that prediction markets constitute gambling when users stake real money on uncertain outcomes, regardless of the technology used, a point detailed in the iGaming Today report. France, for instance, geo-blocked Polymarket in 2024 after a $30 million bet on the U.S. presidential election raised red flags. Meanwhile, in the U.S., while Polymarket has secured a no-action letter from the CFTC, state-level regulations and enforcement remain fragmented, creating ongoing uncertainty, as DL News has reported.

The company's strategy to re-enter the U.S. market hinges on its blockchain-first model and plans for a native token, though details remain unannounced, as reported by CoinDesk. By contrast, its Romanian ban underscores the difficulty of navigating jurisdictions where gambling is tightly controlled. As ONJN warned, allowing unlicensed platforms to operate under the guise of "event trading" risks setting a "reckless precedent" that undermines player protections and fiscal controls, the iGaming Today report warned.

With bans in four European countries and a precarious regulatory position in the U.S., Polymarket's expansion ambitions highlight the tension between decentralized finance innovation and traditional regulatory frameworks. While its U.S. relaunch aims to capitalize on legal clarity via QCX, the broader message from regulators—both in Europe and the U.S.—remains clear: prediction markets involving real-money wagers will face stringent oversight, as reported by CoinDesk and iGaming Today.