BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: A Decade to Dominance?

The crypto world is abuzz with Michael Saylor’s bold prediction: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust, ticker: IBIT) will become the world’s largest ETF within a decade. As of April 2025, the ETF has already racked up $53.77 billion in assets under management (AUM), making it the fastest-growing ETF in history. But can it truly surpass giants like Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which held $573.5 billion as of 2025? Let’s dive into the data.

The ETF’s Rapid Rise

Approved by the SEC in early 2024, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has been a catalyst for institutional adoption. By April 2025:
- IBIT’s AUM had grown to $53.77 billion, representing nearly half of the $106 billion total across all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.
- It recorded a historic $643.16 million in single-day inflows on April 23, driven by Bitcoin’s price surge to $91,739.
- Trading volume hit a record $4.2 billion on April 22, with 81 million shares exchanged.

This momentum reflects a structural shift.

underscores how the ETF’s success is tied to Bitcoin’s institutional legitimacy.

Saylor’s Case for Dominance

Saylor, whose firm MicroStrategy holds 478,740 BTC, argues that Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” will drive demand for regulated exposure. His predictions include:
- Bitcoin at $100,000 by end-2025, with a long-term target of $1 million.
- IBIT overtaking VOO by 2035, fueled by Bitcoin’s displacement of gold and cash as a global reserve asset.

His rationale hinges on three pillars:
1. Regulatory Tailwinds: The SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs (and delayed scrutiny of Ethereum ETFs) has cemented Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage.
2. Corporate Adoption: Over 70 publicly traded companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with firms like GameStop and Semler Scientific accelerating purchases.
3. Macro Catalysts: Falling interest rates, U.S.-China trade policy shifts, and fair-value accounting for corporate Bitcoin holdings are expected to boost demand.

The Math Behind the Moonshot

For IBIT to surpass VOO’s $573.5 billion AUM by 2035, it would need to grow at an average of 18% annually, outpacing Bitcoin’s own price appreciation. Here’s the catch:
- Current Pace: IBIT added $37 billion in net inflows in its first 16 months. To keep pace, it must attract $3–4 billion daily—a staggering rate.
- Bitcoin’s Role: If Bitcoin’s market cap reaches $280 trillion by 2045 (as Saylor envisions), IBIT’s AUM could scale accordingly.

Risks and Realities

• Volatility: Bitcoin has dropped over 50% from prior highs multiple times. Even with ETFs, its price remains unpredictable.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Ethereum ETF delays highlight risks for crypto assets. A crackdown on Bitcoin’s energy use or custody standards could slow adoption.
• ETF Competition: Rival products like Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB are gaining traction, though IBIT’s first-mover status still dominates.

Conclusion: A Decade of Bitcoin’s Institutional Sunrise

Saylor’s vision isn’t just a bet on BlackRock’s execution—it’s a bet on Bitcoin’s evolution into a mainstream asset. With $53.77 billion in AUM already under its belt, IBIT has the infrastructure and investor trust to grow. If Bitcoin’s price hits $100,000 by year-end—and institutional demand follows—IBIT could cross $100 billion in AUM by 2026.

However, overtaking VOO will require Bitcoin to become a $10 trillion asset (from its $800 billion valuation in early 2025). While ambitious, Saylor’s track record—MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings have outperformed its stock by a factor of 20x since 2020—suggests this isn’t just hype.

The next decade will test whether Bitcoin’s volatility can be tamed by regulated ETFs. For now, the data points to a clear path: IBIT is the Bitcoin ETF to watch—and a decade may not be as far off as it seems.

Final Note: This analysis assumes continued regulatory approval, stable macro conditions, and sustained corporate adoption. Risks include market downturns, policy shifts, and technological competition.