BKNG Plummets 2.96% Amid Visa Freeze Fears: Is the Travel Sector in Turmoil?

Summary
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) trades at $5,157.24, down 2.96% intraday, with a 52-week low of $4,096.23.
• A U.S. visa processing freeze impacting 75 countries triggers sector-wide declines.
• Options data reveals bearish positioning, with 41% of trades leaning short-term pessimism.
• The stock’s 200-day moving average sits at $5,281.19, below its current price.

Booking Holdings faces a sharp intraday selloff amid regulatory headwinds in the travel sector. The U.S. visa freeze, coupled with bearish options activity, has rattled investor confidence. With BKNG trading near its 52-week low and sector peers like Expedia (EXPE) also under pressure, the travel industry’s vulnerability to geopolitical shifts is laid bare.

US Visa Freeze Sparks Travel Sector Turmoil
The U.S. government’s sudden freeze on visa processing for 75 countries has triggered a sector-wide selloff, with Booking Holdings bearing the brunt. The policy, announced to address administrative backlogs, has disrupted international travel planning, directly impacting BKNG’s core business. Analysts note that the freeze could delay bookings for Q1 2026, eroding near-term revenue visibility. Compounding the issue, BKNG’s recent earnings report highlighted a 6% decline in foreign visitor numbers to the U.S., underscoring the policy’s immediate economic impact. The stock’s intraday low of $5,057.49 reflects a 19.8% drop from its 52-week high, signaling acute market anxiety.

Travel Sector Reels as Expedia Leads Decline
The travel services sector is in freefall, with Expedia (EXPE) down 3.98% and Airbnb (ABNB) also underperforming. BKNG’s 2.96% decline is less severe than EXPE’s, but both stocks are trading below their 200-day averages. The sector’s pain stems from the visa freeze’s ripple effect on global tourism, which accounts for 60% of BKNG’s revenue. While BKNG’s diversified portfolio (Booking.com, Agoda, Kayak) offers some resilience, the sector’s reliance on international travel makes it acutely sensitive to regulatory shifts.

Bearish Playbook: Navigating BKNG’s Volatility with Options
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day MA: $5,281.19 (below current price)
- RSI: 41.62 (oversold territory)
- MACD: 56.74 (bearish divergence)
- Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $5,299.98 (critical support)

Trading Setup: BKNG’s short-term bearish bias is reinforced by its RSI entering oversold levels and MACD signaling downward momentum. Key support lies at the 200-day MA and Bollinger lower band. A break below $5,299.98 could trigger a test of the 52-week low. While leveraged ETFs are unavailable, options offer tactical entry points.

Top Options:
• BKNG20260213C5180 (Call)
- Strike: $5,180 | Expiry: 2026-02-13 | IV: 0.12% | Delta: 0.0086 | Theta: -0.0503 | Gamma: 0.0135 | Turnover: 0
- IV (Implied Volatility): Low, indicating limited price swings
- Delta (Price Sensitivity): Minimal directional exposure
- Theta (Time Decay): High decay, favoring short-term moves
- Gamma (Volatility Sensitivity): Moderate, amplifying gains if price surges
- Turnover: No liquidity, limiting practicality
- Why: A speculative long play if BKNG rebounds above $5,180, but low turnover makes execution risky.

• BKNG20271217C5520 (Call)
- Strike: $5,520 | Expiry: 2027-12-17 | IV: 0.02% | Delta: 0.0088 | Theta: -0.0023 | Gamma: 0.0140 | Turnover: 0
- IV: Extremely low, suggesting complacency
- Delta: Minimal directional bias
- Theta: Low decay, suitable for long-term holds
- Gamma: Slight sensitivity to price shifts
- Turnover: No liquidity, rendering it impractical
- Why: A long-term bullish bet, but the lack of turnover and low IV make it a paper trade at best.

Payoff Estimation: In a 5% downside scenario (price at $4,899.38), the BKNG20260213C5180 would expire worthless, while the BKNG20271217C5520 would also expire out-of-the-money. Aggressive bulls may consider a short-term put strategy if BKNG breaks below $5,299.98.

Backtest Booking Holdings Stock Performance
BKNG has demonstrated a positive performance after experiencing an intraday plunge of -3% from 2022 to the present. The backtest data reveals that the stock has a 3-day win rate of 54.57%, a 10-day win rate of 59.24%, and a 30-day win rate of 61.69%. This indicates that BKNG tends to rebound relatively strongly in the short term following a significant downturn. The maximum return observed was 6.75% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is some volatility, the stock has the potential to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels.

BKNG at Crossroads: Watch Visa Policy and $5,299.98 Support
Booking Holdings’ sharp decline reflects the travel sector’s fragility in the face of regulatory shocks. While the stock’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold RSI levels, the visa freeze’s duration and global tourism data will dictate its near-term fate. Sector leader Expedia’s -3.98% drop underscores the industry-wide risk. Investors should monitor the $5,299.98 support level and the 200-day MA for directional clues. A sustained break below $5,299.98 could force a reevaluation of BKNG’s long-term thesis. For now, the focus remains on policy developments and whether the U.S. visa freeze is a temporary setback or a structural headwind.