La dura verdad y las oportunidades dulces: invertir en el futuro del chocolate en medio de crisis en la cadena de suministro de cacao

The global cocoa supply chain is in turmoil. A confluence of climate shocks, aging infrastructure, and geopolitical volatility has pushed the industry to a breaking point, creating both risks and opportunities for investors. As cocoa prices hit record highs in 2024 and remain stubbornly elevated, the chocolate sector is pivoting toward innovation. For those attuned to the intersection of sustainability and food technology, the crisis has unlocked a goldmine of investment potential in alternative cocoa substitutes and sustainable food systems.

The Perfect Storm: Why Cocoa Is in Crisis

Cocoa production is under siege from multiple fronts. Climate change has wreaked havoc on West Africa, the source of over 60% of the world's supply. Prolonged droughts followed by torrential rains have devastated crops, while diseases like the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease now plague nearly half of Ghana's cocoa acreage. Compounding these challenges, 70% of cocoa trees in the region are over 25 years old, limiting their productivity and resilience.

Geopolitical factors have further destabilized the market. The 2025 presidential election in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, looms large. If incumbent Alassane Ouattara secures reelection, his proposed farmgate price hike to €4.27 per kilogram could reshape production dynamics and industrial demand. Meanwhile, U.S. trade tariffs introduced in 2024 have added a layer of complexity, hiking costs for American chocolate producers and disrupting global trade flows.

The result? A projected global cocoa deficit of over 1 million metric tons in 2025, with prices peaking at $11,000 per metric ton in early 2024. This volatility has forced chocolate manufacturers to adopt cost-cutting measures, including reformulating products and shrinking packaging, while consumers grapple with higher retail prices.

The Rise of Alternative Cocoa Substitutes

Amid the crisis, a new wave of sustainable food tech companies is redefining the chocolate landscape. These innovators are leveraging plant-based ingredients, fermentation, and cellular agriculture to create cocoa-free alternatives that mimic the taste and texture of traditional chocolate.

Barry Callebaut, the world's largest chocolate manufacturer, has partnered with Planet A Foods to scale ChoViva, a cocoa-free chocolate made from sunflower seeds and other plant-based ingredients. This collaboration aims to mitigate supply chain risks while maintaining quality and taste. ChoViva is already available in 60,000 supermarkets across eight countries, signaling mainstream acceptance.

Startups like Voyage Foods and Nukoko are pushing the boundaries further. Voyage Foods, in partnership with Cargill, has developed a cocoa-free chocolate that slashes carbon emissions by 67%, land use by 90%, and water use by 95% compared to traditional cocoa. Nukoko, meanwhile, uses fermented legumes like fava beans to create a high-protein, low-sugar alternative with a complex flavor profile. These innovations are not just sustainable-they are economically viable, with production costs competitive against conventional cocoa.

The market for these substitutes is accelerating. Since 2015, companies in this space have secured over €300 million in funding, driven by investor appetite for solutions to climate-related supply chain risks. Technological advancements, including precision fermentation and cellular agriculture, are enabling the creation of cocoa-like compounds with nuanced flavor profiles, further blurring the line between traditional and alternative chocolate.

Investment Opportunities in a Shifting Landscape

For investors, the cocoa crisis presents a dual opportunity: short-term gains in alternative ingredients and long-term exposure to sustainable food systems. The immediate demand for cocoa-free substitutes is being driven by chocolate manufacturers seeking to hedge against price volatility. For example, companies like WNWN Food Labs and Forward Fooding are attracting institutional capital by offering scalable, plant-based solutions that align with ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria.

Longer-term, the sector is poised for disruption as emerging producers in Latin America and Asia begin to offset West Africa's production constraints. Brazil, for instance, is investing in cocoa cultivation as part of a broader strategy to diversify global supply chains. However, these efforts will take years to materialize, leaving a gap that alternative ingredients can fill.

Moreover, the inclusion of New York cocoa futures in the Bloomberg Commodity Index has amplified speculative trading, creating further price swings that favor companies with stable, alternative supply chains. Investors who position themselves in firms with diversified, sustainable sourcing models-such as those leveraging agroforestry or regenerative agriculture-stand to benefit from both market stability and ethical consumer trends.

Conclusion: A Sweet Spot for Innovation

The cocoa supply chain crisis is a wake-up call for an industry long reliant on fragile ecosystems and outdated practices. Yet, in this crisis lies an unprecedented opportunity. By investing in sustainable food tech and alternative cocoa substitutes, stakeholders can hedge against climate and geopolitical risks while capitalizing on a growing market for ethical, plant-based products.

As the chocolate sector evolves, the winners will be those who embrace innovation-not just to survive, but to thrive. For investors, the message is clear: the future of chocolate is not in the soil of West Africa alone, but in the labs and fields of tomorrow's food innovators.