Bittensor (TAO): Navigating Bullish Momentum Amid Post-Breakout Cooling in October 2025

Bittensor (TAO) has emerged as a standout performer in October 2025, with its price surging from a low of $362.33 to $439.63, consolidating above critical support levels such as the 0.786 Fibonacci at $428.87 and the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), according to a Traders Union report. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest sustained bullish momentum, yet signs of cooling pressure-evident in divergent volume trends and overbought conditions-pose a nuanced challenge for investors.

Bullish Technical Structure: A Foundation for Growth

TAO's price action post-breakout has been underpinned by a robust technical framework. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has stabilized in a healthy 57 range, while the MACD crossed above its signal line, reinforcing the likelihood of further upward movement, according to a Coincodex analysis. The token has flipped its short-term structure from lower highs to higher highs, with immediate resistance clustered between $460 and $478. A breakout above this zone could propel TAO toward $500–$520, with long-term targets extending to $750 if the December 2025 halving event amplifies scarcity, per a Coinpedia report.

Open interest has rebounded to $253.24 million, signaling renewed speculative activity, while institutional interest-exemplified by Grayscale's allocation of 33.53% of its holdings to TAO-has further fueled the rally, as noted by Coincodex. On-chain metrics like the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) have risen to 0.16, and TAO has traded above the 20-period EMA, both supporting a bullish bias, according to a CCN analysis.

Cooling Momentum: Divergence and Overbought Conditions

Despite the bullish structure, signs of cooling momentum have emerged. The RSI on the daily chart has approached 71, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram has shown a bearish crossover, suggesting short-term pressure on buyers, according to the Traders Union report. Volume trends have also diverged from price action: while TAO's 24-hour trading volume hit $943 million on October 15, derivatives outflows of $48 million on October 14 triggered intraday lows near $370, according to an AMBCrypto report.

On-chain activity reveals mixed signals. The CMF initially spiked to 0.40-the highest since TAO's Binance listing-before retreating to 0.16, reflecting waning whale inflows, according to a BeInCrypto analysis. Additionally, spot investors maintained confidence with $13.7 million in inflows between October 14–16, yet bearish selling persisted, pushing TAO below key technical levels, as reported by AMBCrypto. Analysts caution that a breakdown below $331 could trigger a pullback toward the 200-day SMA or even $200–$240, the Traders Union report warned.

Institutional Adoption and Halving Catalysts

The bullish narrative is further bolstered by institutional adoption and the upcoming halving. TAO Synergies, a Bittensor Treasury company, has expanded its holdings to 54,058 tokens, while Grayscale's Bittensor Trust filing has drawn institutional capital, per Coinpedia. The December 2025 halving will reduce daily token issuance from 7,200 to 3,600, creating a supply-side tailwind that could drive prices higher, CCN notes.

However, derivatives markets remain a risk. Long bias in futures positions could trigger a liquidation spiral if TAO falters near $440–$460, a critical consolidation zone, as Coincodex cautioned. Retail investor activity, though robust, must align with institutional accumulation to sustain the upward trend.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bull Case

TAO's technical structure remains resilient, with institutional interest and the halving event acting as tailwinds. Yet, investors must remain vigilant for divergences in volume and overbought conditions. If TAO sustains above $331 and $444, it could retest $475 and potentially surge toward $600, Coincodex reports. Conversely, a breakdown below $331 would test the 200-day SMA, introducing volatility. For now, the balance of evidence suggests a bullish continuation, but with caution warranted as momentum cools.