Bittensor/Bitcoin Market Overview: TAOBTC 24-Hour Technical Breakdown

• Price drifted lower over 24 hours with a -0.53% close-to-open decline.
• Volatility expanded early, then consolidated between $0.003011–$0.003054 by day-end.
• Downtrend reinforced by bearish engulfing and lower highs; RSI in oversold territory.
• Volume increased in late ET hours; turnover divergence noted after 09:00 ET.
• Fibonacci levels suggest possible short-term support near $0.003003 and $0.003018.

The Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) pair opened at $0.003147 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003009 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, hitting a high of $0.003167 and a low of $0.003003. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 312.623 BTC, with notional turnover reaching approximately $942,399 at BTC prices around $310,000.

Price action showed a clear bearish drift throughout the session, with key resistance levels forming at $0.003158 and $0.003167, and strong support noted at $0.003018 and $0.003003. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $0.003136–$0.003153, indicating pressure from sellers. A doji was also observed near $0.003063, signaling indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the price staying below both, reinforcing a downward bias.

MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover confirmed by a declining histogram. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30–32 by the close, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, a bearish divergence appeared between price and RSI after 09:00 ET, indicating a lack of buying conviction. Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion early in the session, with price staying near the lower band for much of the 24-hour window. This indicates a potential continuation of the downward trend unless price breaks above the upper band, which could trigger a retest of key resistance levels.

Volume spiked in the late ET hours, particularly from 02:00–04:00 ET and again from 15:00–16:00 ET. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, aligning with price declines and reinforcing the bearish narrative. A divergence between price and volume turnover was observed after 09:00 ET, with volume declining despite continued price action lower. Fibonacci retracements from the key swing high at $0.003167 suggest potential support levels at 38.2% ($0.003086), 50% ($0.003050), and 61.8% ($0.003014). A break below $0.003003 would target the next Fibonacci level at $0.002978.

The 50-period and 100-period daily moving averages are both bearish, with the price below both, supporting the idea of an ongoing downtrend. The 200-period MA, while neutral, has not acted as a strong support level in this timeframe. These indicators, combined with the 15-minute chart’s bearish momentum, suggest that the 24-hour bearish trend is well-established.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for TAOBTC could involve entering short positions when the 15-minute RSI dips below 30 and the MACD histogram turns negative, with a stop-loss placed just above the 50-period moving average. This would align with the observed bearish bias and overbought conditions. Additionally, Fibonacci retracement levels could be used to identify key support areas to target for profit-taking or trailing stops. Given the recent consolidation between $0.003011 and $0.003054, a backtest could evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy over the past 30 days, focusing on win rate, risk-to-reward ratio, and maximum drawdowns. A trailing stop could be added after a successful short move to lock in gains, especially if volume and turnover confirm the strength of the move.