BitMine’s performance has plummeted by 5.9%, despite the temporary relief provided by the MSCI index, and there’s also a surge in the use of staking for Ethereum.

Summary
• BitMine Immersion (BMNR) tumbles 4.53% intraday to $30.865, a sharp reversal from its 52-week high of $161.
• The stock’s 100x share expansion proposal sparks investor anxiety, with critics labeling it a 'short-sighted move.'
• MSCI’s last-minute reprieve for crypto treasury firms (DATs) fails to buoy sentiment as ETH staking dynamics shift.
• Technicals show RSI at 53.8, MACD divergence, and a bearish 'engulfing' candle pattern.

BitMine Immersion’s 4.5% intraday plunge has ignited a firestorm of speculation. The stock’s collapse coincides with a controversial 100x share authorization plan, Ethereum staking volatility, and lingering doubts over MSCI’s DAT delisting decision. With turnover surging to 27.7 million shares and a dynamic PE of 40x, the market is grappling with whether this is a short-term panic or a structural shift in investor confidence.

Share Expansion Plan Sparks Investor Anxiety
BitMine’s proposed 100x increase in authorized shares has triggered a liquidity crisis in investor sentiment. The move, framed as a 'strategic flexibility' play by CEO Tom Lee, has been interpreted as a direct attack on shareholder value. Critics on social media and forums highlight the dilutive risk, noting that similar moves by MSTR led to 53% share price declines in Q4 2025. The market’s reaction is compounded by the company’s recent $14.2B Ethereum staking expansion, which now represents 3.43% of total ETH supply. With ETH’s entry queue at 1.46M tokens and exit wait times at 25 days, the staking narrative is shifting from bullish to bearish as capital becomes increasingly locked in.

Bearish Options Play Amid Technical Divergence
• RSI: 53.79 (neutral) • MACD: -1.38 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 30.865 near lower band (24.12) • K-line Pattern: Short-term bullish trend + bearish engulfing • Support/Resistance: 30.896–31.184 (30D support) • Turnover Rate: 6.73% (high liquidity)

Technical indicators suggest a fragile equilibrium. The RSI hovering near 54 indicates no overbought/oversold extremes, but the MACD histogram’s positive divergence (0.529) hints at short-term bearish exhaustion. The bearish engulfing pattern on the candlestick chart aligns with the 30D support zone at $30.896. For options, two contracts stand out:

• BMNR20260116P28 (Put): • Strike: $28 • Expiry: 1/16 • IV: 53.83% (moderate) • Delta: -0.1158 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.01135 (slow decay) • Gamma: 0.07066 (high sensitivity) • Turnover: $387,399 (liquid). This put option offers a 32.73% price change potential with a 39.23% leverage ratio, ideal for a 5% downside scenario (ST=29.32). Payoff: max(0, 29.32-28)=1.32.

• BMNR20260116P29.5 (Put): • Strike: $29.5 • Expiry: 1/16 • IV: 98.23% (high) • Delta: -0.3478 (moderate) • Theta: -0.04296 (rapid decay) • Gamma: 0.07334 (high sensitivity) • Turnover: $9,537 (liquid). This put offers a 51.76% price change with a 24.02% leverage ratio. Payoff under 5% downside: max(0, 29.32-29.5)=0.00 (break-even).

Aggressive bears should prioritize BMNR20260116P28 for its liquidity and moderate IV. If $30.896 support breaks, consider rolling into BMNR20260116P29.5 for amplified downside exposure.

Backtest BitMine Immersion Stock Performance
```The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about backtesting BMNR's performance after a -5% intraday plunge from 2022 to now. First, I need to check the references provided. The user mentioned a specific query in the references, which is Number 1. That reference has the backtest results for BMNR when it experiences a -5% intraday drop. Looking at the results, there are 80 such events between 2022 and 2026. The key metrics are the win rates and returns over 3, 10, and 30 days. The 3-day win rate is 32.5%, 10-day is 43.75%, and 30-day is 60%. The returns are 2.57%, 15.94%, and 18.84% respectively. The max return is 26.63% on day 44. I should structure the answer starting with a conclusion, then detailed analysis. The user is interested in the NASDAQ Composite, so maybe mention how BMNR's performance compares to that index. Also, the user's profile shows a moderate risk tolerance, so highlighting the potential upside after a plunge might be relevant.I need to make sure to cite reference 1 correctly with . Also, since the query is in the references, I have to include the visualization right after the relevant paragraph. The visualization should be placed immediately after the paragraph containing the citation. Let me outline the sections: Conclusion, Event Frequency and Win Rates, Returns Analysis, and Strategic Context. Each section should have a table from the reference data. Make sure to use markdown tables and bold the key points. Also, add emojis to make it engaging.Wait, the user's question is about backtesting, so the answer should focus on the statistical results. The user might be looking for whether BMNR tends to recover or not after such drops. The 30-day win rate is 60% with an 18.84% return, which is positive. The max return of 26.63% suggests that some events led to significant gains. Also, the user's profile mentions a focus on NASDAQ, but BMNR is listed on NYSE American, not NASDAQ. However, the user's interest in growth stocks might still find BMNR relevant due to its crypto holdings. I should mention the strategic context from the other references, like BMNR's accumulation of ETH and their staking plans, which could influence future performance. References 2, 4, 5, 8, 14, 15, 16 talk about their ETH holdings and staking, which might support the stock's upside potential. Make sure not to include any data not in the references. For example, the user's question is about backtesting, so focus on the results from reference 1. The other references provide context but shouldn't be used for the backtest results. Also, check the dates in the references. The backtest runs from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-07, which aligns with the current time given (2026-01-07). So the data is up-to-date. I need to ensure the answer starts with a definitive conclusion, then breaks down the analysis with tables and explanations. Use bold for headings and key metrics. Also, include the visualization tag right after the backtest results section. Let me draft the sections:1. Conclusion: Summarize the key findings from the backtest.2. Event Frequency and Win Rates: Table with the data from reference 1.3. Returns Analysis: Table with the returns and max return.4. Strategic Context: Mention BMNR's ETH accumulation and staking plans from other references.Make sure each section flows logically, citing reference 1 where needed. Also, use emojis to make it lively, like 📊 for data, 🚀 for upside potential, etc.Double-check that all citations are correctly formatted as . No other references should be cited unless they directly support the backtest results, which they don't. The other references provide context but aren't part of the backtest data.Finally, ensure the answer is concise but comprehensive, adhering to the user's preferences for a mix of technical and fundamental analysis. Highlight the moderate risk tolerance by showing both the potential recovery and the volatility involved.``` 🎯 Conclusion BMNR (BitMine Immersion Technologies) exhibits a positive recovery bias after experiencing a -5% intraday plunge, with a 60% win rate over 30 days and an average return of 18.84% during the period from 2022 to 2026 . However, short-term volatility remains high, with only a 32.5% win rate within 3 days. This suggests that while BMNR may recover strongly over the medium term, immediate post-plunge trading carries significant risk. --- 📊 Event Frequency and Win Rates The backtest analyzed 80 events where BMNR dropped by -5% intraday. Here’s how the stock performed post-event: | Metric | 3-Day Win Rate | 10-Day Win Rate | 30-Day Win Rate | |------------------------|----------------|------------------|------------------| | Win Rate | 32.50% | 43.75% | 60.00% | | Average Return | +2.57% | +15.94% | +18.84% | | Max Return | +26.63% (Day 44) | - | - | Key Takeaway: BMNR shows increasing recovery potential as the time horizon extends, with a 60% chance of positive returns within 30 days . --- 📉 Returns Analysis The table below highlights the average and maximum returns across different time frames: | Time Frame | Average Return | Max Return | Days to Max Return | |------------|----------------|------------|--------------------| | 3-Day | +2.57% | +26.63% | 44 | | 10-Day | +15.94% | - | - | | 30-Day | +18.84% | - | - | Insight: While the 3-day return is modest, the 30-day return reflects BMNR’s ability to capitalize on long-term trends, likely driven by its strategic accumulation of Ethereum (ETH) . --- 🚀 Strategic Context BMNR’s Ethereum-focused strategy (holding ~3.37% of total ETH supply as of 2025 ) aligns with its long-term growth thesis. The company plans to stake 5% of ETH’s circulating supply by 2026 , which could amplify its upside potential. However, short-term volatility (e.g., a 24% decline in the past week ) underscores the need for patient, risk-aware investing. Final Thoughts: BMNR’s post-plunge recovery suggests it’s a high-conviction, high-risk play for investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for crypto market volatility.

BMNR Faces Crucial Crossroads: Watch for Shareholder Vote Outcome
The selloff reflects a perfect storm of dilution fears, Ethereum staking uncertainty, and MSCI’s ambiguous DAT policy. With the 100x share plan vote approaching on 1/15, the market will test whether Tom Lee’s 'strategic flexibility' narrative can overcome shareholder skepticism. Technicals suggest a short-term bounce near $30.896 support, but a sustained break below $28 would validate the bearish case. Investors should monitor ETH’s staking dynamics and the outcome of BitMine’s shareholder vote. As a contrast, sector leader MSTR (+2.4% intraday) shows crypto treasuries can still rally if fundamentals align. For BMNR, the next 72 hours will determine if this is a buying opportunity or a liquidity trap.