BitMEX Co-Founder Skeptical of U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Expansion

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has expressed skepticism about the United States significantly increasing its Bitcoin holdings. Hayes believes that the country's substantial national debt and the cultural perception of Bitcoin investors make it politically infeasible for the U.S. to proactively build a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" beyond the nearly 200,000 BTC it already possesses. These assets were primarily seized from criminal investigations, such as the Silk Road and Bitfinex cases.

Hayes argues that the U.S., being a deficit country, would find it challenging to justify printing more money to buy Bitcoin. He also highlighted the cultural stigma associated with Bitcoin investors, often portrayed as "Bitcoin bros going to the club," which could negatively impact public perception of such a policy. Despite the U.S. government officially holding over 198,000 BTC worth more than $18 billion, Hayes believes that expanding these reserves through direct purchases is politically implausible.

Hayes' comments come weeks after Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. This move sparked debate over whether it signals long-term institutional support or is more symbolic. While Hayes is skeptical, others in the crypto community believe that such a move by the U.S. could trigger a global rush for Bitcoin. Hayes also reiterated his belief that Bitcoin dominance is heading back to pre-2021 levels near 70%, signaling a return to the familiar boom-and-bust cycle of Bitcoin surges followed by altcoin rallies. He stated, “It’s back at all-time highs; bull markets are back, and altcoins should outperform.”

Despite Hayes' expectations, not everyone agrees. Some analysts argue that Bitcoin dominance is unlikely to reach 70% again, while others suggest that traditional metrics for tracking altcoin season are outdated. They believe that newer signals are now driven more by fiat and stablecoin volume, reflecting real market growth rather than asset rotation. Public companies, however, continue to show interest in Bitcoin. Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, recently announced it is doubling its capital raising plan to $84 billion in an aggressive push to acquire more Bitcoin. The Virginia-based company disclosed that it has filed to sell an additional $21 billion in common shares after depleting a previous program of the same size authorized in October. It also doubled its debt issuance target from $21 billion to $42 billion, leaving $14.6 billion remaining under its current authorization. In the first quarter of the year, publicly traded companies increased their Bitcoin holdings by 16.1%, signaling continued institutional interest in the leading cryptocurrency despite market volatility.