Bitfinex Whales At It Again: Bitcoin Price Rally Imminent?

Bitcoin (BTC) faces mounting pressure as the price hovers near $90,000, struggling to gain a foothold above this critical support level. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade has accelerated liquidity outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a combined $681 million in outflows recorded in the first full week of 2026. Analysts point to the Bank of Japan's rate hikes as a key factor behind increased risk-off positioning in crypto markets.

The broader macroeconomic environment remains a significant headwind. Bitcoin's performance has closely tracked the Yen over the past few months amid the unwinding of low-risk Yen-based leveraged positions. Recent data shows the Yen's correlation with Bitcoin hitting record highs, amplifying short-term selling pressure. This trend has intensified with the recent shift in borrowing costs for Yen-based crypto loans, making such strategies less profitable.

Investor sentiment is also subdued as market participants await key macroeconomic developments. The U.S. Supreme Court's decision on January 9 regarding Trump's global tariffs could trigger volatility across multiple asset classes. A ruling against the tariffs may force the Treasury to refund up to $140 billion in revenue, raising uncertainty for markets.

Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below $94k in Early 2026?

Bitcoin's recent price decline comes after a brief attempt to rally above $94k in early January. This resistance level, tied to the 50-week EMA, failed to hold as profit-taking and macroeconomic fears weighed on buyer demand. The rejection at this level coincided with a broader pullback in risk-on assets, driven by fading rate-cut hopes and rising geopolitical tensions.

Analysts have cited institutional outflows as a key factor behind the recent decline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted four consecutive days of redemptions, with $398 million in outflows reported on Thursday alone. The decline in ETF inflows signals a shift in positioning among large investors who are currently adopting a more cautious stance.

What Are Analysts Watching for a Potential Rally in 2026?

Despite the short-term challenges, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential for a strong rebound in 2026. Historical patterns show that Bitcoin has historically averaged near 100% gains in the year following a down year. This trend is seen in cycles such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, where Bitcoin's price surged significantly after bearish periods.

On-chain metrics also provide some hope for a reversal. The MVRV ratio has turned downward after hitting resistance in overvalued territory, suggesting profit-taking activity. Additionally, long-term holder behavior indicates increased activity from older coin cohorts, a typical precursor to consolidation periods.

BlackRock's recent $900 million Bitcoin purchase adds to the bullish case for institutional accumulation, particularly as long-term selling pressure continues to decline toward 2017 lows. This dynamic, combined with falling institutional selling, could signal the early stages of a new accumulation phase.

What Key Levels and Catalysts Could Trigger a Breakout in 2026?

Bitcoin's next move will likely depend on its ability to clear key technical and on-chain levels. The 100-week EMA at $86,025 currently serves as a crucial support level. If this area holds, Bitcoin could see a rebound toward the 50-week EMA at $97,631. A failure to hold the $90k level, however, could push the price toward $85,569, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Macroeconomic catalysts are also expected to play a role. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on January 10 will offer insight into labor market conditions and potential Fed rate policy shifts. A softer-than-expected report could trigger a risk-on environment, favoring higher-beta assets like Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom has predicted a potential surge to $200,000 if U.S. monetary policy continues to expand the money supply while maintaining low inflation. He argues that capturing Venezuela's oil reserves could help the Trump administration maintain inflation control while supporting dollar liquidity.

The broader macroeconomic climate, including potential changes in energy prices and geopolitical stability, could also influence Bitcoin's trajectory. A reduction in global energy costs could shift capital into alternative assets like crypto, while tighter monetary policy or regulatory changes might have the opposite effect.

Institutional adoption and regulatory developments will also be closely watched. South Korea's plans to open its markets to Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 could provide additional liquidity and investor confidence, further supporting a potential breakout.

Bitcoin's next major move may depend on how well it navigates these key levels and external catalysts. A sustained rally above $100k would be needed to invalidate current bearish expectations, while a continued consolidation phase could set the stage for a more gradual accumulation period.