Bitfarms Surges 12% on Intraday Rally—What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Bitfarms (BITF) surges 12.08% to $2.9141, breaking above its 30-day moving average of $2.74
• Intraday range widens to $2.68–$2.95, with turnover hitting 45.56 million shares
• Options chain erupts: 11,196 contracts traded on the $3 call expiring Jan 9, up 266.67% in price
Bitfarms’ stock is in a tailwind-driven frenzy, with technical indicators and options data painting a picture of aggressive short-term positioning. The $2.91 price tag marks a 12% intraday gain, fueled by a mix of momentum traders and speculative options activity. With the 52-week high at $6.60 still distant, the question looms: is this a breakout or a flash crash?

Bullish Momentum and Options Gamma Attack
The 12.08% intraday surge in BITF is driven by a combination of technical momentum and options market dynamics. The stock’s price has pierced above the 30-day moving average ($2.74) and the upper Bollinger Band ($3.15), signaling a breakout from a long-term range. Meanwhile, the options chain reveals a gamma squeeze: the $3 call options expiring Jan 9 (BITF20260109C3) have seen a 266.67% price jump, with 11,196 contracts traded. High gamma (1.1266) and leverage ratio (26.64%) indicate aggressive short-term bullish positioning, as traders bet on a continuation above $3.

Options Gamma Play and ETF Neutral Stance
• 200-day average: $1.94 (well below current price)
• RSI: 40.12 (oversold territory, suggesting potential rebound)
• MACD: -0.1725 (bearish), but histogram shows positive divergence (0.0157)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $2.91, near upper band ($3.15), indicating overbought conditions
BITF’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish breakout, with key resistance at $3.15 (upper Bollinger Band) and support at $2.646 (middle Bollinger Band). The RSI in oversold territory and positive MACD divergence hint at potential continuation. However, the 52-week high at $6.60 remains a distant target. No leveraged ETFs are available for direct correlation.
Top Options Picks:
• BITF20260109C3 (Call):
- Strike: $3, Expiry: Jan 9
- IV: 102.35% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.4472 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0239 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 1.1266 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $90,199
- Leverage: 26.64%
- Payoff at 5% upside (2.9141 → 3.06): $0.06 per share (600% gain on $0.01 premium)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and leverage amplify returns if BITF holds above $3.
• BITF20260116C3 (Call):
- Strike: $3, Expiry: Jan 16
- IV: 98.75% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.4861 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0131 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.7599 (strong sensitivity)
- Turnover: $112,258
- Leverage: 16.28%
- Payoff at 5% upside (2.9141 → 3.06): $0.06 per share (600% gain on $0.01 premium)
- Why it stands out: Higher liquidity and gamma make it ideal for a mid-term hold.
Hook: Aggressive bulls should target BITF20260109C3 for a 5% upside play, while hedgers may pair BITF20260116C3 with a short-term put for volatility protection.

Backtest Bitfarms Stock Performance
The Backtest of BITF's performance after a 12% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows a positive trend, with the 3-Day win rate at 44.11%, the 10-Day win rate at 45.03%, and the 30-Day win rate at 49.42%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 9.85%, which occurred on day 55, indicating that BITF tends to perform well in the short term following a significant intraday surge.

Breakout or Flash Crash? Watch the $3 Threshold
BITF’s 12% intraday surge is a high-stakes gamble between momentum and mean reversion. The stock’s proximity to the upper Bollinger Band and the options gamma attack suggest a critical test at $3. If this level holds, the 52-week high of $6.60 becomes a speculative target. However, a breakdown below $2.646 (middle Bollinger Band) could trigger a retest of the 52-week low at $0.673. Investors should monitor the sector leader IBM, which rose 1.53% today, for broader market sentiment. Action: Buy BITF20260109C3 if $3.00 is breached intraday; exit on a close below $2.70.