Bitcoin/Zloty Market Overview for 2025-11-08

Summary
• Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) rallied to a 24-hour high of 380,000 PLN before reversing.
• Volatility surged as prices swelled 2.4% in 3 hours, then corrected 0.5% after 6 hours.
• High-volume spikes occurred at 20:45 ET and 21:00 ET, with a strong reversal from 21:15 ET.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, with potential bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands reflect a recent contraction followed by expansion, signaling increased volatility.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 371,741 PLN on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 376,608 PLN on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between 371,211 and 382,437 PLN. Total traded volume was 1.583 BTC, and notional turnover was approximately 587,000,000 PLN.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a strong bull trend with a high at 382,437 PLN before a bearish reversal began around 21:00 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 20:45 and 21:00 ET, confirming short-term strength. Later, a long upper shadow at 00:15 ET and a bearish harami pattern at 04:30 ET signaled exhaustion. Key support levels include 376,608 and 375,000, while 382,437 acts as a resistance.

Moving Averages

Short-term bullish momentum is evident as the 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a steep upward trajectory before the reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is rising but the 200-period MA remains bearish, indicating a potential trend divergence.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit 70 at 20:45 ET, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram peaked at the same time. By 04:30 ET, RSI dipped below 50 and MACD turned negative, signaling a potential bearish turn. A bearish divergence between price and RSI after 03:45 ET raises caution.

Bollinger Bands

A Bollinger contraction occurred at 21:45 ET before a sharp expansion began. Price broke above the upper band at 19:45 ET, indicating strong volatility. However, by 02:00 ET, price dropped below the middle band, confirming weakening bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 0.047 BTC at 21:00 ET and again at 22:15 ET, confirming key price levels. Notional turnover also surged, peaking at over 17.4 million PLN at 20:45 ET. Divergences between price and volume appeared at 03:15 ET and 04:30 ET, suggesting weakening conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% retracement level at 378,000 PLN acted as support during the reversal phase, while a 61.8% retracement level at 374,000 PLN may offer additional short-term support. On the 15-minute chart, the 50% retracement level at 378,000 PLN was repeatedly tested before the price declined.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the challenges in accessing ready RSI data for BTCPLN, we propose calculating it manually from the provided OHLCV data. This would allow for a tailored RSI(14) strategy using BTC/PLN’s raw prices, enabling a backtest of mean-reversion signals. The key question is whether RSI divergence at overbought levels (e.g., >70) correlates with a reversal in price direction. Given BTCPLN’s recent RSI behavior and volume confirmation, such a strategy could have captured the 21:00 ET pullback.