Bitcoin/Yen 24-Hour Market Overview

Summary
• BTCJPY rallied sharply, breaking above key resistance with a bullish impulse.
• Volume surged during the late-night ET buying wave, confirming strength.
• RSI and MACD suggest momentum is accelerating into overbought territory.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥15,887,398 at 12:00 ET − 1 and surged to a high of ¥16,429,338 by midday ET, closing at ¥16,423,205. Total volume reached 165.03 BTC, while notional turnover hit ¥26.69 billion over 24 hours. The pair formed a strong bullish continuation pattern with a late-night breakout, supported by rising volume and positive divergence.

Structure & Formations

BTCJPY formed a strong bullish continuation pattern over the last 24 hours, marked by a key breakout above ¥16,300,000. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged between ¥16,290,000 and ¥16,380,000, reinforcing the bullish bias. A bearish doji near ¥16,110,000 preceded the breakout, signaling indecision before the rally. Immediate support now sits at ¥16,300,000, with resistance likely at ¥16,500,000.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, forming a golden cross that confirmed the bullish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at ¥16,315,000, with the 100-period MA at ¥16,162,000 and the 200-period MA at ¥15,987,000. The price is well above all three, indicating a strong uptrend on the daily frame.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned sharply positive, with a strong bullish crossover of the signal line. RSI surged above 65, signaling overbought conditions, though it remains below the 70 threshold. Momentum remains strong, with the RSI showing no immediate signs of exhaustion. A pullback to the 55–60 RSI range would be a healthier area to test before the trend could reverse.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout, with the bands widening beyond ¥16,350,000. Price has closed above the upper band, suggesting a strong breakout in a tight consolidation pattern. The 20-period BB high was reached at ¥16,429,338. A retest of the upper band is likely, but as long as the lower band at ¥16,240,000 holds, the bullish structure remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout phase, with 50% of the total 24-hour volume occurring between 00:00–06:00 ET. Turnover also surged in line with price, showing no divergence, which is a positive sign for trend sustainability. The most recent 15-minute candle at 06:45 ET traded 1.29 BTC at an average price of ¥16,383,500, confirming strong buyer participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥16,110,000 to ¥16,429,338, the 61.8% level is at ¥16,345,000. The 38.2% retrace at ¥16,292,000 has already been tested and held, now acting as support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace of the longer-term swing from ¥16,000,000 to ¥16,429,338 is at ¥16,345,000, aligning with the key consolidation level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest hypothesis under development seeks to evaluate RSI overbought events (RSI > 70) in BTCJPY to assess their predictive value for short-term reversals or consolidations. This strategy would ideally use a validated and available ticker symbol to ensure accurate historical RSI values. Once confirmed—whether through a corrected ticker, a switch to BTC/USD, or an alternative source—the backtest can run over the 2022–2025 period, tracking how frequently overbought conditions preceded corrections or sustained breakouts.