Bitcoin's Weakening Near-Term Momentum: A Bearish Signal from Declining Taker Buy Volume and Divergent Investor Behavior

Bitcoin's near-term momentum has shown signs of weakening in late 2025, with declining Taker Buy Volume emerging as a critical bearish signal. This metric, which measures the volume of buy orders executed on exchanges, has dropped to its lowest level since late 2024, raising concerns about waning buyer enthusiasm and potential price corrections, according to a Coin-Views analysis. The decline is compounded by divergent behavior between institutional and retail investors, with the latter offloading holdings while the former's accumulation efforts have yet to translate into sustained price strength.

Taker Buy Volume: A Barometer of Market Sentiment

Taker Buy Volume has long been a proxy for market demand, as it reflects the aggressiveness of buyers in pushing prices higher. As of late September 2025, Bitcoin's Taker Buy Volume has fallen to 2024 lows, according to a CoinPedia forecast. This trend aligns with on-chain data showing that major whales have sold over 147,000 BTC since August 21, 2025, as noted in a BeInCrypto report. The net taker volume-a metric that subtracts sell volume from buy volume-has turned negative, signaling that sellers are now more active than buyers, a pattern highlighted in a vTrader analysis. Such divergence often precedes market reversals, as seen historically during the 2021 peak.

Institutional Accumulation vs. Retail Exodus

While institutional investors have continued to accumulate Bitcoin, retail selling pressure has intensified. Large holders, including publicly traded companies and ETFs, have added 507,700 BTC to their portfolios over the past year, with MicroStrategy's $584 million purchase in March 2025 and Twenty One Capital's $3.6 billion fund being notable examples (BeInCrypto). However, retail investors have been net sellers, with wallets holding less than 1 BTC experiencing a year-on-year outflow of 54,500 BTC, averaging 220 BTC daily (BeInCrypto). This divergence mirrors the 2024 bull market, where institutional buying outpaced retail FOMO, but the current retail exodus suggests a more fragile market structure.

Price Action and Technical Indicators

Bitcoin's price has remained in a narrow range between $109,898 and $115,000 since mid-2025, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish accumulation and bearish selling. A breakdown below the $109,898 support level could trigger further declines, while a breakout above $115,000 might push the price toward $120,000 (BeInCrypto). Analysts from 10x Research caution that Bitcoin could swing by as much as $20,000 in either direction in early Q4 2025, underscoring the market's volatility (CoinPedia). On-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio (currently at 2.0) suggest the market is in a mid-cycle reset rather than a terminal top, but the lack of retail participation weakens the case for a sustained rally, according to a CryptoPotato analysis.

Broader Bull Market Resilience

Despite these bearish signals, some indicators suggest the broader bull market remains intact. Long-term holders have shown minimal profit-taking activity, and the MVRV ratio's historical correlation with mid-cycle resets implies Bitcoin could still rally in October (CryptoPotato). Institutional confidence, driven by ETF inflows and corporate treasury allocations, provides a floor for prices. However, the absence of retail FOMO-a hallmark of past bull runs-raises questions about the sustainability of this cycle.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's weakening near-term momentum, as evidenced by declining Taker Buy Volume and divergent investor behavior, signals a precarious market environment. While institutional accumulation offers a degree of support, the retail exodus and whale selling pressure create a high-risk profile for short-term price stability. Investors should monitor key support/resistance levels and on-chain metrics like the Taker Buy Sell Ratio (currently below 1) for further clues (vTrader). The coming weeks will likely determine whether Bitcoin consolidates or enters a deeper correction phase.