Bitcoin Vulnerability to Quantum Computing: A Warning from Solana Founder

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warns that Bitcoin is vulnerable to quantum computing attacks within the next five years. Yakovenko urges the Bitcoin community to migrate to a quantum-resistant signature scheme to ensure the integrity and security of the virtual assets. Experts like Vitalik Buterin have also expressed concerns about the potential risks posed by quantum computing to crypto, but not everyone is convinced. Market incentives may be driving estimates for the need for post-quantum crypto.

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has issued a stark warning to the Bitcoin community, urging them to accelerate the migration to quantum-resistant signature schemes. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko cautioned that there is a 50% chance of a quantum breakthrough within the next five years that could compromise the cryptographic security of Bitcoin Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

Yakovenko's warning comes amidst growing industry concerns about the ability of quantum computers to break elliptic curve cryptography, which currently protects Bitcoin wallets. While current quantum machines have around 1,000 qubits, experts estimate that thousands or millions of qubits would be needed to threaten crypto security. Tech giants like IBM, Google, and Microsoft are pushing aggressive development timelines, with some targeting millions of qubits within the coming decade Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

Cybersecurity experts estimate that approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, remains vulnerable to potential quantum attacks. These coins are held in older Pay-to-Public-Key addresses or reused Pay-to-Pubkey-Hash formats that expose public keys directly on the blockchain. David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol and a former ethical hacker, warned that adversaries may already be implementing "harvest now, decrypt later" strategies, collecting encrypted blockchain data today for future decryption once quantum computers become capable enough Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

In response to these growing threats, El Salvador took proactive steps in September 2025 by splitting its 6,284 BTC national reserve across 14 separate addresses to reduce exposure to quantum attacks. Major financial institutions have also begun acknowledging quantum risks, with BlackRock and Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino warning about inactive wallet exposures Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

Multiple quantum computing experts have narrowed their estimates for when quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s security to the late 2020s or early 2030s. However, Gavin Brennen from Macquarie University recently updated his assessment, noting that required quantum computer sizes have dropped from 10-20 million qubits to around one million Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

Upgrading Bitcoin to quantum-resistant cryptography requires enormous coordination challenges for decentralized networks. Unlike centralized institutions that can update SSL certificates overnight, blockchain networks require consensus from all participants, including inactive users and legacy wallet holders. The National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized three main post-quantum digital signature standards in 2024: CRYSTALS-Dilithium, FALCON, and SPHINCS+. Implementing these algorithms requires hard forks, which Bitcoin’s decentralized governance structure makes difficult to coordinate quickly Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

The convergence of AI with quantum computing has accelerated development timelines beyond earlier predictions. Microsoft’s recent chip breakthroughs prompted claims that quantum computing is now "years, not decades" away. Amazon and Google have also reportedly made similar aggressive timeline commitments with their respective quantum initiatives. IBM is planning to build 100,000-qubit chipsets by decade’s end, while PsiQuantum targets one million photonic qubits within the same timeframe Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

Yakovenko and others emphasize the urgency of preparing cryptographic defenses before quantum capabilities mature. Carvalho recommends phased migration approaches, including dual-signature transactions that combine current ECDSA signatures with post-quantum proofs. This allows testing quantum-safe infrastructure while maintaining compatibility with existing systems until full transitions become necessary Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat^[1].

Meanwhile, quantum computing stocks are jumping on Thursday, with Rigetti Computing inking a deal with the Air Force worth $5.8 million over three years. Rigetti will advance the Air Force Research Laboratory's supercomputing quantum network, and the company has enjoyed a month of steady growth, rising 52%. Rigetti Computing stock surged on Thursday after the announcement, boosting other stocks in the sector The Air Force wants more research on quantum computing, and it's sending stocks in the sector soaring^[2].

Despite claims from some experts that the quantum computing field still has big hurdles to clear, and that useful quantum technology is still far away, Big Tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia have invested in developing quantum applications, helping spur momentum for the sector The Air Force wants more research on quantum computing, and it's sending stocks in the sector soaring^[2].

As the threat of quantum computing looms closer, the immediate focus remains on defensive preparations rather than speculations on when. The Bitcoin community must act swiftly to ensure the integrity and security of their virtual assets.