La volatilidad de Bitcoin y los riesgos de posiciones cortas con elevada apalancamiento: un análisis de riesgos sistémicos en el marco de la agitación del mercado de noviembre de 2025

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 exposed the fragility of leveraged trading in crypto markets, particularly for high-leverage short positions. Amid a $2 trillion selloff in the S&P 500 and U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, Bitcoin plummeted below $85,000 for the first time since April 2025, triggering a cascade of liquidations that wiped out $1.7–2.0 billion in leveraged positions. While specific details on a $165 million BTC short at 20x leverage on Hyperliquid remain elusive, the broader market dynamics and systemic risks of such a position are well-documented-and deeply concerning.

The Systemic Risks of High-Leverage Short Positions

Leveraged trading amplifies both gains and losses, but in volatile markets, it creates a self-fulfilling cycle of panic selling. During November 2025, Bitcoin's perpetual futures open interest collapsed by 35% from October's peak, while funding rates for long positions plummeted from -20% to -35%, forcing traders to exit positions en masse. A 20x leveraged short position, by design, requires minimal price movement to trigger margin calls.

. For example, a 5% upward swing in Bitcoin's price would erase 100% of a 20x leveraged short's equity, assuming no stop-loss mechanisms.

The November liquidation event underscores this risk. Hyperliquid reported a single $36.7 million loss during the selloff, a fraction of the hypothetical $165 million short position. However, even smaller leveraged bets can exacerbate market stress. When large positions are liquidated, they create additional selling pressure, further driving down prices and triggering more liquidations-a classic "death spiral."

November 2025: A Case Study in Contagion

The November 2025 turmoil was not isolated to crypto. Cross-asset contagion from traditional markets amplified the crisis. The S&P 500 lost $2 trillion in a 5-hour period, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed, compounding Bitcoin's downward trajectory. For leveraged short positions, this macroeconomic shock created a perfect storm: falling asset prices, tightening liquidity, and a risk-off sentiment that pushed the Fear & Greed Index to an extreme fear level of 11.

Hyperliquid's role in this environment is telling. The platform captured 40% of the market's $80 million in blockchain revenue for November 2025, highlighting its growing influence. Yet, as Bybit and Hyperliquid accounted for over half of the $2 billion in daily liquidations, it became clear that centralized leverage platforms are both enablers and casualties of systemic risk. A $165 million short at 20x leverage, if liquidated, would have contributed to this cycle, accelerating price declines and eroding market confidence.

Investor Behavior and Liquidity Constraints

On-chain data reveals a stark divergence in investor behavior during the selloff. Short-term traders accumulated Bitcoin, while mid-term holders sold off, with 2-5-year-old BTC holders reducing their holdings by 31% since November 2023. This exodus of long-term holders exacerbated liquidity constraints, as order-book depth collapsed. For leveraged short positions, thin liquidity means slippage becomes a critical risk-executing large orders at desired prices becomes impossible, compounding losses.

Moreover, the collapse of stablecoin dominance (which pulled back from October's all-time high) and Ethereum's dominance in transfer volumes signaled broader market instability. In such an environment, even well-capitalized leveraged positions face existential threats.

Conclusion: Lessons for Investors

The November 2025 selloff serves as a cautionary tale for leveraged traders. While the market avoided a full-scale collapse, the $2 billion in liquidations demonstrated how quickly leverage can turn from a tool of amplification to a weapon of destruction. For investors considering high-leverage short positions, the lesson is clear: leverage magnifies not just returns but systemic vulnerabilities.

As Bitcoin's volatility persists, market participants must balance ambition with prudence. The hypothetical $165 million short at 20x leverage may never materialize in the data, but its risks are very real-and they reflect the broader fragility of a market still grappling with its own leverage-driven identity crisis.