La volatilidad del bitcoin en la cara del riesgo geopolítico: reevaluar su rol como activo de riesgo en entornos macroestables

The past five years have reshaped Bitcoin's identity in global financial markets. Once hailed as a digital safe-haven asset, Bitcoin's behavior during geopolitical and macroeconomic crises-from the 2020 pandemic to the 2025 gold crash-has revealed a complex duality: it is both a high-beta risk asset and a speculative store of value. This duality challenges traditional assumptions about Bitcoin's role in portfolios, particularly as its volatility and correlation with equities have surged, blurring the lines between its function as a hedge and its exposure to systemic risk.

Bitcoin's Volatility: A Double-Edged Sword

Bitcoin's performance from 2020 to 2025 was nothing short of extraordinary. Cumulative returns of 1,531% dwarfed gold's 150% and the S&P 500's 104% over the same period. Yet this outperformance came at a cost: Bitcoin's 100-day annualized volatility frequently exceeded 60%, spiking to 120% during market upheavals. By contrast, gold's volatility remained sub-20%, and the S&P 500's ranged between 10% and 30%. This volatility has been most pronounced during geopolitical crises. For instance, in October 2025, gold suffered a historic two-day crash, losing $2.5 trillion in market value-surpassing Bitcoin's entire market cap at the time. Bitcoin, however, maintained its value above $100,000 during this turmoil, showcasing resilience but also underscoring its role as a high-risk, high-reward asset.

The Shifting Correlation Landscape

Bitcoin's relationship with traditional assets has evolved dramatically. Historically uncorrelated with equities, Bitcoin increasingly behaved like a risk asset in 2025, with a 30-day rolling correlation of 0.87 with the S&P 500 and 0.52 with the NASDAQ 100. This shift reflects growing institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, particularly under the Trump administration, which integrated Bitcoin into traditional portfolio frameworks. For example, Bitcoin's price movements closely mirrored equities and tech stocks in early 2025 following the election of a pro-crypto administration. However, this alignment also exposed Bitcoin to synchronized corrections, such as the late 2025 downturn driven by hawkish Federal Reserve policies and AI stock volatility.

Expert Perspectives: Risk Asset vs. Safe-Haven

Campbell Harvey of Duke University has noted that while Bitcoin exhibits some store-of-value characteristics, its volatility and regulatory uncertainties limit its effectiveness as a traditional safe-haven asset compared to gold. During the October 2025 crash, gold attracted strong inflows as a first-line refuge, while Bitcoin initially moved with risk-on assets before stabilizing. This dynamic highlights gold's entrenched role as a crisis hedge, with Bitcoin serving as a secondary, speculative complement.

Further research underscores Bitcoin's divergence from gold. A 2025 study found that Bitcoin's volatility synchronizes with stock market swings while inversely affecting gold. For example, Bitcoin's price corrections historically coincided with stock market downturns but diverged from gold, which typically serves as a safe-haven. This was evident in October 2025, when gold's sharp correction challenged its reputation as a stable store of value, while Bitcoin maintained relative stability.

Future Outlook: Macro Sensitivity and Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026 and beyond will hinge on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments. CoinShares' 2026 Digital Assets Outlook posits that Bitcoin could surge past $170,000 in a Fed crisis scenario, driven by aggressive stimulus and shifts in real yields. Conversely, Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone warns of a potential "Great Reversion," where Bitcoin could plummet to $10,000 amid extreme volatility. These divergent scenarios reflect Bitcoin's sensitivity to central bank policies and global economic dynamics.

Grayscale's 2026 report emphasizes Bitcoin's role as an alternative monetary asset, particularly as fiat currency risks rise due to growing public sector debt and inflation concerns. Regulatory clarity is expected to accelerate institutional adoption, reshaping Bitcoin's integration into traditional portfolios. However, unique risks-such as blockchain vulnerabilities and quantum computing threats-remain significant hurdles.

Conclusion: A Complementary, Not Replacement, Asset

Bitcoin's evolving role in unstable macro environments underscores its dual nature: a high-beta risk asset with speculative appeal and a potential hedge in normalized conditions. While it cannot yet replace gold as the primary safe-haven asset, it offers diversification benefits in portfolios seeking exposure to macroeconomic trends and technological innovation. Investors must weigh Bitcoin's volatility and regulatory risks against its potential to outperform in inflationary environments and benefit from institutional adoption. As geopolitical uncertainties persist, Bitcoin's place in the modern financial landscape will likely remain a dynamic, evolving narrative.