Bitcoin's US Transfer Volumes Rise, Signaling Potential 2025 Rally

Bitcoin’s transfer volumes on US exchanges have been on the rise, indicating a potential rally in the latter half of 2025. This trend is significant as historical data shows that increased US-based trading activities often precede price surges. The 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA is a strong bullish signal, similar to past market cycles where such a crossover led to substantial price increases.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the “US vs. off-shore ratio,” which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, has shown a drop in dominance from US exchanges after Bitcoin reached an all-time high in January. This shift suggests that US exchanges are regaining influence, which could kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.

Onchain analysis provides further insights into Bitcoin’s price potential. Analysts have observed that Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have decreased significantly, with only 2.43 million BTC currently held on exchanges compared to 3.4 million in 2021. This reduction indicates a strong inclination toward long-term holding among investors, leading to a reduced supply in the market. Additionally, the Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) at 14.3 suggests that considerable purchasing power remains, as this ratio is still below the highs established in 2021. According to analyst Boris Vest, this implies that Bitcoin is still undervalued, and the bull market and buying pressure are likely to continue.

Key technical indicators also suggest bullish momentum ahead. Markets analyst Dom highlighted that Bitcoin has successfully broken out of a multi-month downtrend and has flipped the monthly Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) into support for the first time since January. This VWAP calculation integrates trading volume to provide a more accurate price trend analysis. Dom noted that if Bitcoin moves above recent highs, it could approach the $90,000 mark, supported by recent bullish activities.

Despite the bullish sentiment, market observers are advised to proceed cautiously as Bitcoin nears the critical resistance level of approximately $86,000. Founder of Alphractal, João Wedson, cautioned that a pullback may be necessary if Bitcoin surpasses this level, or bearish market control could take hold. This sentiment aligns with Alphractal’s analysis, which identifies $86,300 as a pivotal resistance zone that could present a bull trap if the price does not hold.

As the market continues to exhibit volatility, traders should remain vigilant, monitoring both macroeconomic conditions and technical indicators to navigate potential investment opportunities effectively. In summary, Bitcoin’s rising transfer volumes and supportive technical indicators suggest a robust outlook as we approach late 2025. Investors should remain informed about market conditions and potential resistance levels while considering the implications of onchain analytics and trading volumes on future price movements. With a cautious approach, traders could capitalize on the renewed bullish momentum.