Bitcoin/Tether Market Overview (BTCUSDT): Volatility, Pullback, and Key Levels

• BTCUSDT fluctuated between $111,674 and $113,290, closing near key support with bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory while volume surged during a late-night pullback.
• A 15-minute doji and consolidation near Bollinger Bands indicate indecision ahead of potential breakouts.
• Volume was highest during early AM ET, with turnover confirming bearish continuation.
• Fibonacci levels suggest 61.8% retracement at $112,500 could act as a pivot point.

At 12:00 ET, BTCUSDT opened at $112,704.89, hit a high of $113,290.50, and closed near $112,714.62 after touching a low of $111,674. The 24-hour volume amounted to 15,869.38 BTC with a notional turnover of $1.76B. The price action showed a bearish bias as buyers failed to hold above the $113,000 threshold, and the market closed within a tight consolidation range.

The 15-minute chart revealed a doji at the upper Bollinger Band during the late-ET hours, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern followed near $113,000, confirming the reversal. Short-term moving averages (20/50) crossed bearishly, with the 50-period line acting as a resistance. On the daily chart, the 200SMA offered a baseline, while the 50SMA hovered just above the recent close.

MACD diverged slightly from price, with negative momentum accelerating during the pullback phase. RSI fell to 32 in the morning before rebounding, hinting at possible oversold conditions. However, bearish volume spikes during the late-night to early-AM hours indicated strong shorting pressure. Price stayed within the Bollinger Bands most of the session but touched the upper edge twice, suggesting high volatility. Fibonacci levels at 61.8% (around $112,500) and 38.2% ($113,500) will likely serve as pivots for near-term direction.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be testing key support at $112,000 with a risk of breaking below into the next Fibonacci level at $111,900. A decisive close above $113,000 could reignite bullish momentum, but for now, the bias remains cautiously bearish. Investors should monitor the 50-period MA and RSI divergence for further clues on whether the pullback is a correction or a deeper bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a short-term reversal trade when the RSI crosses below 30 and volume spikes by at least 20% above the 20-period average. This is followed by a stop-loss placed at the most recent 15-minute high and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior swing. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have triggered a short signal around $112,000 during the early AM ET pullback. The position would have closed near $112,700 with a modest gain or breakeven if exited at the 61.8% level. Over the next 24 hours, the strategy could be tested if BTCUSDT remains in the $112,400–$113,000 range and generates another oversold RSI signal with strong volume confirmation.