Bitcoin/Tether Market Overview: BTCUSDT

• Price surged above 124,000, breaking 20-period and 50-period resistance on the 15-min chart.
• RSI reached overbought levels, while MACD showed bullish divergence in late ET hours.
• Volume and turnover spiked sharply during the 02:45–04:00 ET window, confirming upward momentum.
• Price retested 123,000–122,800 support multiple times before rebounding.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at 121,813.83 on 2025-10-04 at 16:00 ET and closed at 123,055.06 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 125,708.42, and the low was 121,510.0. Total volume was 31,098.4 BTC, with a notional turnover of $3,912,407,915.

Structure & Formations

Price broke above key 15-min resistance levels at 122,000 and 123,000 after forming a bullish engulfing pattern at 02:30–02:45 ET. A doji formed at 04:45 ET near 123,000, indicating indecision before a sharp rebound. The 121,500–121,600 area acted as strong support, with bounces observed in early ET hours.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

The 15-minute EMA(20) and EMA(50) crossed above price by 03:00 ET, reinforcing bullish momentum. MACD remained positive throughout the session, with a histogram peak near 05:00 ET, and RSI reached 78–80 during the late ET surge. A divergence was observed between price and RSI at 09:15 ET, hinting at potential pullback.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as price surged from 122,000 to 125,708.42. At 02:45 ET, price traded near the upper band, signaling overbought conditions. By 09:00 ET, volatility began to contract, with price stabilizing within the mid-band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 3,174.47 BTC at 05:00 ET, coinciding with a breakout above 124,299.79. Turnover increased correspondingly, reaching $399,667,580 in that period. Divergence was noted at 09:30 ET, where price continued higher while volume decreased, suggesting caution ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels included 38.2% at 123,390 and 61.8% at 124,453. Price held above the 38.2% level in early ET and surged past the 61.8% level by 04:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at 123,800 supported the bounce, while the 61.8% at 125,500 may act as resistance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on short-term breakout trades triggered by the 15-minute EMA(20)/EMA(50) cross and RSI > 60. Stop-loss levels could be set below 122,500 (support) and 125,500 (resistance). A trailing take-profit at 124,000–124,500 may capture mid-term gains while limiting exposure to potential mean reversion.